Predictions / Football / Lebanon. Premier League / Jwaaya FC vs Al Nejmeh

Prediction Audit: Jwaaya FC vs Al Nejmeh Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jwaaya FC Jwaaya FC
Jun 16, 2026 - 18:30
2 1.07
1 1.11
xG Accuracy: 75%
Al Nejmeh Al Nejmeh

The model missed the final outcome (Jwaaya FC win 2–1).

The model had projected Al Nejmeh at 34.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Nejmeh Jwaaya FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Jwaaya FC win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 16, 2026 · 18:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Jwaaya FC 1.07 — Al Nejmeh 1.11
  2. Jun 16, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Jwaaya FC win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 21:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1507644

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jwaaya FC win · Jwaaya FC 2–1 Al Nejmeh
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Jwaaya FC vs Al Nejmeh
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-16 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.6% · Draw 32.8% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): Jwaaya FC 1.07 — Al Nejmeh 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.18)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 62.8% · Over 2.5 37.2%); BTTS No (Yes 45.8% · No 54.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.8% · No 54.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53
2 Al Nejmeh 21 14 4 3 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 40
4 Jwaaya FC 21 11 5 5 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 30
7 Shabab Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 27
8 Al Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 22
9 Reyady Abaseya 21 5 5 11 20
10 Tadamon Sour 21 3 8 10 17
11 Bourj 11 3 1 7 10
12 Racing 21 0 1 20 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ansar 21 53 9 +44 53
2 Al Nejmeh 21 42 10 +32 46
3 Al Ahed 21 34 22 +12 40
4 Jwaaya FC 21 31 14 +17 38
5 Safa 21 30 17 +13 36
6 Al Hikma 21 29 27 +2 30
7 Shabab Al Sahel 21 22 21 +1 27
8 Reyady Abaseya 21 16 30 -14 20
9 Tadamon Sour 21 12 26 -14 17
10 Al Mabarrah 21 12 36 -24 22
11 Bourj 11 8 20 -12 10
12 Racing 21 4 61 -57 1
Premier League Lebanon. Premier League Predictions