The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Santo André at 38.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Santo André Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santo André | 38.3% | 47.0% | -8.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.0% | 30.4% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| São Caetano | 31.7% | 22.6% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates São Caetano's win probability at 31.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.6%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on São Caetano.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Santo André; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Santo André by 9.1 percentage points (29.2% vs model 38.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Santo André 38.3% · Draw 30.0% · São Caetano 31.7%
- xG · Santo André 1.28 — São Caetano 1.32
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Santo André 1.89 · Draw 2.92 · São Caetano 3.93
- Implied 1X2 · Santo André 47.0% · Draw 30.4% · São Caetano 22.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 12:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Santo André 1.89 · Draw 2.92 · São Caetano 3.93
- Implied 1X2 · Santo André 47.0% · Draw 30.4% · São Caetano 22.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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