Predictions / Football / Brazil. Copa Paulista / Marília vs Grêmio Prudente

Prediction Audit: Marília vs Grêmio Prudente Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Marília Marília
Jul 17, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 64%
Grêmio Prudente Grêmio Prudente

The model missed the final outcome (Marília win 1–0).

The model had projected Grêmio Prudente at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Grêmio Prudente Marília ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Marília higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Marília -28.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Marília 32.4% 61.2% -28.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.9% +3.7 pp Aligned
Grêmio Prudente 38.0% 12.9% +25.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Marília's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Marília win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Grêmio Prudente; match finished Marília

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Grêmio Prudente by 28.8 percentage points (66.8% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Marília 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Grêmio Prudente 38.0%
    • xG · Marília 1.24 — Grêmio Prudente 1.36
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Marília 1.57 · Draw 3.30 · Grêmio Prudente 5.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Marília 57.2% · Draw 27.2% · Grêmio Prudente 15.6%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Marília 1.48 · Draw 3.50 · Grêmio Prudente 7.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Marília 61.2% · Draw 25.9% · Grêmio Prudente 12.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Marília win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2120816

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds 2.63
CLV Pending
Final Result Marília win · Marília 1–0 Grêmio Prudente
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 38.0%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Copa Paulista
  • Fixture: Marília vs Grêmio Prudente
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Marília 1.24 — Grêmio Prudente 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Grêmio Prudente
  • Model: 38.0% · Implied: 12.9% · Probability edge: +25.1 pts · Est. EV: +12.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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