The model missed the final outcome (Bogota FC win 0–1).
The model had projected Deportivo Pasto at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Deportivo Pasto Bogota FC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 40.9% | 67.2% | -26.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.1% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Bogota FC | 29.7% | 11.7% | +18.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Deportivo Pasto's win probability at 67.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Bogota FC win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo Pasto; match finished Bogota FC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo Pasto by 26.3 percentage points (67.2% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Bogota FC 29.6%
- xG · Deportivo Pasto 1.42 — Bogota FC 1.18
-
Jul 21, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 1.38 · Draw 4.40 · Bogota FC 7.92
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 67.2% · Draw 21.1% · Bogota FC 11.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 21, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 1.38 · Draw 4.40 · Bogota FC 7.92
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 67.2% · Draw 21.1% · Bogota FC 11.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bogota FC win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Deportivo Pasto & Bogota FC!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Copa Colombia — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza Petrolera | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Alianza Petrolera | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 |
