Predictions / Football / Iceland. 2. Deild / Kormákur / Hvöt vs Haukar

Prediction Audit: Kormákur / Hvöt vs Haukar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kormákur / Hvöt Kormákur / Hvöt
Aug 19, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
Haukar Haukar

The model missed the final outcome (Haukar win 1–2).

The model had projected Kormákur / Hvöt at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kormákur / Hvöt Haukar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Haukar higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haukar -24.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kormákur / Hvöt 37.5% 22.2% +15.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 20.9% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Haukar 32.9% 56.8% -24.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Haukar's win probability at 56.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 24.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Haukar win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Kormákur / Hvöt; match finished Haukar

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kormákur / Hvöt by 24.0 percentage points (61.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 19, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kormákur / Hvöt 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Haukar 32.9%
    • xG · Kormákur / Hvöt 1.35 — Haukar 1.25
  2. Aug 19, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kormákur / Hvöt 4.12 · Draw 4.37 · Haukar 1.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Kormákur / Hvöt 22.2% · Draw 20.9% · Haukar 56.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 19, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kormákur / Hvöt 4.12 · Draw 4.37 · Haukar 1.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Kormákur / Hvöt 22.2% · Draw 20.9% · Haukar 56.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 19, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Haukar win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3820756

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Haukar win · Kormákur / Hvöt 1–2 Haukar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Deild
  • Fixture: Kormákur / Hvöt vs Haukar
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Kormákur / Hvöt 1.35 — Haukar 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 2. Deild Matches Track Kormákur / Hvöt Next Match Prediction Track Haukar Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Kormákur / Hvöt & Haukar!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
2. Deild 2. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haukar 22 15 2 5 47
2 Selfoss 22 13 6 3 45
3 Kári 22 11 9 2 42
4 Dalvík / Reynir 22 9 4 9 31
5 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 9 4 9 31
6 Fjolnir 22 8 6 8 30
7 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 9 2 11 29
8 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 7 6 9 27
9 Magni 22 7 4 11 25
10 Thróttur Vogar 22 7 2 13 23
11 KFG 22 7 1 14 22
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 3 8 11 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kári 22 56 29 +27 42
2 Haukar 22 55 32 +23 47
3 Selfoss 22 55 36 +19 45
4 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 51 45 +6 29
5 Fjolnir 22 49 46 +3 30
6 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 42 38 +4 27
7 KFG 22 38 58 -20 22
8 Dalvík / Reynir 22 37 37 0 31
9 Magni 22 35 54 -19 25
10 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 33 41 -8 31
11 Thróttur Vogar 22 33 42 -9 23
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 28 54 -26 17