Predictions / Football / Iceland. 2. Deild / Vikingur Olafsiik vs Selfoss

Prediction Audit: Vikingur Olafsiik vs Selfoss Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vikingur Olafsiik Vikingur Olafsiik
Aug 10, 2026 - 19:15
2 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 56%
Selfoss Selfoss

The model missed the final outcome (Vikingur Olafsiik win 2–0).

The model had projected Selfoss at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Selfoss Vikingur Olafsiik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +7.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vikingur Olafsiik 32.4% 37.7% -5.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.5% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Selfoss 38.0% 39.8% -1.8 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Vikingur Olafsiik win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Selfoss; match finished Vikingur Olafsiik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Selfoss by 7.1 percentage points (30.9% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vikingur Olafsiik 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Selfoss 38.0%
    • xG · Vikingur Olafsiik 1.24 — Selfoss 1.36
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vikingur Olafsiik 2.43 · Draw 4.07 · Selfoss 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Vikingur Olafsiik 37.7% · Draw 22.5% · Selfoss 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vikingur Olafsiik 2.43 · Draw 4.07 · Selfoss 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Vikingur Olafsiik 37.7% · Draw 22.5% · Selfoss 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vikingur Olafsiik win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2972886

Closing Odds 4.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vikingur Olafsiik win · Vikingur Olafsiik 2–0 Selfoss
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Deild
  • Fixture: Vikingur Olafsiik vs Selfoss
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Vikingur Olafsiik 1.24 — Selfoss 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Deild 2. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haukar 22 15 2 5 47
2 Selfoss 22 13 6 3 45
3 Kári 22 11 9 2 42
4 Dalvík / Reynir 22 9 4 9 31
5 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 9 4 9 31
6 Fjolnir 22 8 6 8 30
7 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 9 2 11 29
8 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 7 6 9 27
9 Magni 22 7 4 11 25
10 Thróttur Vogar 22 7 2 13 23
11 KFG 22 7 1 14 22
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 3 8 11 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kári 22 56 29 +27 42
2 Haukar 22 55 32 +23 47
3 Selfoss 22 55 36 +19 45
4 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 51 45 +6 29
5 Fjolnir 22 49 46 +3 30
6 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 42 38 +4 27
7 KFG 22 38 58 -20 22
8 Dalvík / Reynir 22 37 37 0 31
9 Magni 22 35 54 -19 25
10 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 33 41 -8 31
11 Thróttur Vogar 22 33 42 -9 23
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 28 54 -26 17