Predictions / Football / Iceland. 2. Deild / Dalvík / Reynir vs Vikingur Olafsiik

Prediction Audit: Dalvík / Reynir vs Vikingur Olafsiik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dalvík / Reynir Dalvík / Reynir
Jul 25, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 64%
Vikingur Olafsiik Vikingur Olafsiik

The model missed the final outcome (Vikingur Olafsiik win 0–1).

The model had projected Dalvík / Reynir at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dalvík / Reynir Vikingur Olafsiik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dalvík / Reynir higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dalvík / Reynir -13.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dalvík / Reynir 38.0% 52.0% -13.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Vikingur Olafsiik 32.4% 24.6% +7.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Dalvík / Reynir's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Vikingur Olafsiik win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dalvík / Reynir than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dalvík / Reynir; match finished Vikingur Olafsiik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dalvík / Reynir by 13.9 percentage points (51.9% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dalvík / Reynir 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Vikingur Olafsiik 32.4%
    • xG · Dalvík / Reynir 1.36 — Vikingur Olafsiik 1.24
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dalvík / Reynir 1.74 · Draw 3.85 · Vikingur Olafsiik 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalvík / Reynir 52.0% · Draw 23.5% · Vikingur Olafsiik 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dalvík / Reynir 1.74 · Draw 3.85 · Vikingur Olafsiik 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalvík / Reynir 52.0% · Draw 23.5% · Vikingur Olafsiik 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vikingur Olafsiik win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456463

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vikingur Olafsiik win · Dalvík / Reynir 0–1 Vikingur Olafsiik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Deild
  • Fixture: Dalvík / Reynir vs Vikingur Olafsiik
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Dalvík / Reynir 1.36 — Vikingur Olafsiik 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Deild 2. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haukar 22 15 2 5 47
2 Selfoss 22 13 6 3 45
3 Kári 22 11 9 2 42
4 Dalvík / Reynir 22 9 4 9 31
5 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 9 4 9 31
6 Fjolnir 22 8 6 8 30
7 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 9 2 11 29
8 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 7 6 9 27
9 Magni 22 7 4 11 25
10 Thróttur Vogar 22 7 2 13 23
11 KFG 22 7 1 14 22
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 3 8 11 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kári 22 56 29 +27 42
2 Haukar 22 55 32 +23 47
3 Selfoss 22 55 36 +19 45
4 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 51 45 +6 29
5 Fjolnir 22 49 46 +3 30
6 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 42 38 +4 27
7 KFG 22 38 58 -20 22
8 Dalvík / Reynir 22 37 37 0 31
9 Magni 22 35 54 -19 25
10 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 33 41 -8 31
11 Thróttur Vogar 22 33 42 -9 23
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 28 54 -26 17