Prediction Audit: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

Jul 25, 2026 - 14:00

4 1.29

2 1.31

xG Accuracy: 39%

Thróttur Vogar

AI correctly predicted the Fjardabyggd / Leiknir win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Fjardabyggd / Leiknir ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	40.7%	56.5%	-15.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	27.3%	20.6%	+6.7 pp	Model Higher
Thróttur Vogar	32.0%	23.0%	+9.0 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Fjardabyggd / Leiknir's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.7%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fjardabyggd / Leiknir win 4–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Fjardabyggd / Leiknir than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fjardabyggd / Leiknir higher (56.4% vs model 40.7%, 15.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fjardabyggd / Leiknir win 4–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 25, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 40.8% · Draw 27.3% · Thróttur Vogar 31.9%
- xG · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1.29 — Thróttur Vogar 1.31
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1.60 · Draw 4.39 · Thróttur Vogar 3.93
- Implied 1X2 · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 56.5% · Draw 20.6% · Thróttur Vogar 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1.60 · Draw 4.39 · Thróttur Vogar 3.93
- Implied 1X2 · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 56.5% · Draw 20.6% · Thróttur Vogar 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Fjardabyggd / Leiknir win · 4–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455877

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Fjardabyggd / Leiknir win · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 4–2 Thróttur Vogar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 2. Deild
Fixture: Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Thróttur Vogar
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1.29 — Thróttur Vogar 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming 2. Deild Matches Track Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Next Match Prediction Track Thróttur Vogar Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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2. Deild — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Haukar	22	15	2	5	47
2	Selfoss	22	13	6	3	45
3	Kári	22	11	9	2	42
4	Dalvík / Reynir	22	9	4	9	31
5	Vikingur Olafsiik	22	9	4	9	31
6	Fjolnir	22	8	6	8	30
7	Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	22	9	2	11	29
8	Kormákur / Hvöt	22	7	6	9	27
9	Magni	22	7	4	11	25
10	Thróttur Vogar	22	7	2	13	23
11	KFG	22	7	1	14	22
12	Hvíti riddarinn	22	3	8	11	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kári	22	56	29	+27	42
2	Haukar	22	55	32	+23	47
3	Selfoss	22	55	36	+19	45
4	Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	22	51	45	+6	29
5	Fjolnir	22	49	46	+3	30
6	Kormákur / Hvöt	22	42	38	+4	27
7	KFG	22	38	58	-20	22
8	Dalvík / Reynir	22	37	37	0	31
9	Magni	22	35	54	-19	25
10	Vikingur Olafsiik	22	33	41	-8	31
11	Thróttur Vogar	22	33	42	-9	23
12	Hvíti riddarinn	22	28	54	-26	17