Predictions / Football / Iceland. 2. Deild / KFG vs Kári

Prediction Audit: KFG vs Kári Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KFG KFG
Jul 17, 2026 - 19:15
1 1.33
5 1.27
xG Accuracy: 33%
Kári Kári

The model missed the final outcome (Kári win 1–5).

The model had projected KFG at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 KFG Kári ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kári higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kári -22.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
KFG 36.6% 24.4% +12.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 19.2% +10.5 pp Model Edge
Kári 33.8% 56.5% -22.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kári's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kári win 1–5.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned KFG; match finished Kári

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on KFG by 22.7 percentage points (59.3% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · KFG 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Kári 33.8%
    • xG · KFG 1.33 — Kári 1.27
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · KFG 3.71 · Draw 4.71 · Kári 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · KFG 24.4% · Draw 19.2% · Kári 56.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · KFG 3.71 · Draw 4.71 · Kári 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · KFG 24.4% · Draw 19.2% · Kári 56.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kári win · 1–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 04:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2976514

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kári win · KFG 1–5 Kári
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Deild
  • Fixture: KFG vs Kári
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): KFG 1.33 — Kári 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Deild 2. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haukar 22 15 2 5 47
2 Selfoss 22 13 6 3 45
3 Kári 22 11 9 2 42
4 Dalvík / Reynir 22 9 4 9 31
5 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 9 4 9 31
6 Fjolnir 22 8 6 8 30
7 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 9 2 11 29
8 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 7 6 9 27
9 Magni 22 7 4 11 25
10 Thróttur Vogar 22 7 2 13 23
11 KFG 22 7 1 14 22
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 3 8 11 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kári 22 56 29 +27 42
2 Haukar 22 55 32 +23 47
3 Selfoss 22 55 36 +19 45
4 Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 22 51 45 +6 29
5 Fjolnir 22 49 46 +3 30
6 Kormákur / Hvöt 22 42 38 +4 27
7 KFG 22 38 58 -20 22
8 Dalvík / Reynir 22 37 37 0 31
9 Magni 22 35 54 -19 25
10 Vikingur Olafsiik 22 33 41 -8 31
11 Thróttur Vogar 22 33 42 -9 23
12 Hvíti riddarinn 22 28 54 -26 17