Predictions / Football / Brazil. Carioca A2 / Serrano RJ vs CFRJ / Maricá

Prediction Audit: Serrano RJ vs CFRJ / Maricá Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Serrano RJ Serrano RJ
Jun 14, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.23
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 85%
CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected CFRJ / Maricá at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CFRJ / Maricá Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned CFRJ / Maricá; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 14, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Serrano RJ 1.23 — CFRJ / Maricá 1.37
  2. Jun 14, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 15:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2934455

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Serrano RJ 1–1 CFRJ / Maricá
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Carioca A2
  • Fixture: Serrano RJ vs CFRJ / Maricá
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Serrano RJ 1.23 — CFRJ / Maricá 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Carioca A2 Carioca A2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Americano Campos 11 8 1 2 25
2 CFRJ / Maricá 11 7 3 1 24
3 Resende 11 5 4 2 19
4 América RJ 11 5 1 5 16
5 Pérolas Negras 11 5 1 5 16
6 São Gonçalo EC RJ 11 4 2 5 14
7 Bonsucesso 11 4 2 5 14
8 Olaria 11 3 4 4 13
9 Cabofriense 11 3 3 5 12
10 CEAC / Araruama 11 3 2 6 11
11 Serrano RJ 11 2 5 4 11
12 Audax Rio 11 3 0 8 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Americano Campos 11 18 9 +9 25
2 América RJ 11 18 14 +4 16
3 Resende 11 16 9 +7 19
4 Cabofriense 11 12 13 -1 12
5 CFRJ / Maricá 11 11 7 +4 24
6 São Gonçalo EC RJ 11 11 10 +1 14
7 Olaria 11 11 11 0 13
8 Pérolas Negras 11 11 15 -4 16
9 CEAC / Araruama 11 11 15 -4 11
10 Bonsucesso 11 10 11 -1 14
11 Audax Rio 11 10 17 -7 9
12 Serrano RJ 11 10 18 -8 11