The model missed the final outcome (Guarani de Palhoça win 0–2).
The model had projected Tubarao at 40.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tubarao Guarani de Palhoça ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tubarao | 40.0% | 45.8% | -5.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.0% | 30.5% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Guarani de Palhoça | 30.0% | 23.7% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Guarani de Palhoça's win probability at 30.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Guarani de Palhoça win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Guarani de Palhoça.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Tubarao; match finished Guarani de Palhoça
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tubarao by 6.3 percentage points (33.7% vs model 40.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tubarao 40.0% · Draw 29.9% · Guarani de Palhoça 30.0%
- xG · Tubarao 1.35 — Guarani de Palhoça 1.25
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 17:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tubarao 1.94 · Draw 2.91 · Guarani de Palhoça 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Tubarao 45.8% · Draw 30.5% · Guarani de Palhoça 23.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Tubarao 1.94 · Draw 2.91 · Guarani de Palhoça 3.75
- Implied 1X2 · Tubarao 45.8% · Draw 30.5% · Guarani de Palhoça 23.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guarani de Palhoça win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Catarinense - 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitano | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Nação | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Juventus SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Jaraguá | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caravaggio | 9 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 18 |
| 2 | Blumenau | 9 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 19 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 17 |
| 4 | Metropolitano | 9 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Nação | 9 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 7 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Jaraguá | 9 | 4 | 32 | -28 | 1 |
| 10 | Juventus SC | 9 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 7 |
