Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko C / JBK vs VPS II

Prediction Audit: JBK vs VPS II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

JBK JBK
Jul 25, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 55%
VPS II VPS II

The model missed the final outcome (JBK win 2–0).

The model had projected VPS II at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 VPS II JBK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices JBK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: JBK -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
JBK 32.5% 39.6% -7.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.9% 24.5% +3.4 pp Aligned
VPS II 39.5% 36.0% +3.6 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates JBK's win probability at 39.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.5%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was JBK win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on JBK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned VPS II; match finished JBK

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on VPS II by 7.0 percentage points (46.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 21:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · JBK 32.6% · Draw 27.9% · VPS II 39.5%
    • xG · JBK 1.21 — VPS II 1.39
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · JBK 2.29 · Draw 3.70 · VPS II 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · JBK 39.6% · Draw 24.5% · VPS II 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · JBK 2.29 · Draw 3.70 · VPS II 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · JBK 39.6% · Draw 24.5% · VPS II 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result JBK win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455869

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result JBK win · JBK 2–0 VPS II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko C
  • Fixture: JBK vs VPS II
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): JBK 1.21 — VPS II 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko C Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 11 3 4 36
2 GBK 18 10 2 6 32
3 JBK 18 10 1 7 31
4 VPS II 18 7 4 7 25
5 Jaro 2 18 8 1 9 25
6 Kraft 18 7 2 9 23
7 TP-47 18 6 5 7 23
8 Vaajakoski 18 6 3 9 21
9 JS Hercules 18 6 3 9 21
10 SJK-juniorit 18 5 4 9 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 50 26 +24 36
2 Kraft 18 50 45 +5 23
3 VPS II 18 47 36 +11 25
4 GBK 18 43 33 +10 32
5 JBK 18 37 24 +13 31
6 Vaajakoski 18 34 44 -10 21
7 Jaro 2 18 33 54 -21 25
8 JS Hercules 18 31 42 -11 21
9 TP-47 18 28 35 -7 23
10 SJK-juniorit 18 27 41 -14 19