Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko C / TP-47 vs JS Hercules

Prediction Audit: TP-47 vs JS Hercules Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TP-47 TP-47
Jul 23, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 64%
JS Hercules JS Hercules

The model missed the final outcome (JS Hercules win 0–1).

The model had projected TP-47 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 TP-47 JS Hercules ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices TP-47 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: TP-47 -21.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
TP-47 39.0% 60.7% -21.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 19.5% +10.0 pp Model Higher
JS Hercules 31.5% 19.8% +11.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates TP-47's win probability at 60.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 21.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was JS Hercules win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned TP-47; match finished JS Hercules

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on TP-47 by 21.7 percentage points (60.7% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 23, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · TP-47 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · JS Hercules 31.5%
    • xG · TP-47 1.38 — JS Hercules 1.22
  2. Jul 23, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · TP-47 1.49 · Draw 4.63 · JS Hercules 4.58
    • Implied 1X2 · TP-47 60.7% · Draw 19.5% · JS Hercules 19.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 23, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · TP-47 1.49 · Draw 4.63 · JS Hercules 4.58
    • Implied 1X2 · TP-47 60.7% · Draw 19.5% · JS Hercules 19.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result JS Hercules win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449481

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result JS Hercules win · TP-47 0–1 JS Hercules
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko C
  • Fixture: TP-47 vs JS Hercules
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-23 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): TP-47 1.38 — JS Hercules 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko C Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 11 3 4 36
2 GBK 18 10 2 6 32
3 JBK 18 10 1 7 31
4 VPS II 18 7 4 7 25
5 Jaro 2 18 8 1 9 25
6 Kraft 18 7 2 9 23
7 TP-47 18 6 5 7 23
8 Vaajakoski 18 6 3 9 21
9 JS Hercules 18 6 3 9 21
10 SJK-juniorit 18 5 4 9 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Huima / Urho 18 50 26 +24 36
2 Kraft 18 50 45 +5 23
3 VPS II 18 47 36 +11 25
4 GBK 18 43 33 +10 32
5 JBK 18 37 24 +13 31
6 Vaajakoski 18 34 44 -10 21
7 Jaro 2 18 33 54 -21 25
8 JS Hercules 18 31 42 -11 21
9 TP-47 18 28 35 -7 23
10 SJK-juniorit 18 27 41 -14 19
Kakkonen - Lohko C Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko C Predictions