Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko A / Union Plaani vs PEPO

Prediction Audit: Union Plaani vs PEPO Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Union Plaani Union Plaani
Jul 31, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
PEPO PEPO

The model missed the final outcome (PEPO win 0–2).

The model had projected Union Plaani at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Union Plaani PEPO ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices PEPO higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: PEPO -21.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Union Plaani 35.2% 22.0% +13.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.4% +8.2 pp Model Higher
PEPO 35.2% 56.6% -21.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates PEPO's win probability at 56.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 21.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was PEPO win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Union Plaani; match finished PEPO

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Union Plaani by 21.4 percentage points (56.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Union Plaani 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · PEPO 35.2%
    • xG · Union Plaani 1.30 — PEPO 1.30
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Union Plaani 4.12 · Draw 4.23 · PEPO 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Plaani 22.0% · Draw 21.4% · PEPO 56.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Union Plaani 4.12 · Draw 4.23 · PEPO 1.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Plaani 22.0% · Draw 21.4% · PEPO 56.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result PEPO win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1672396

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result PEPO win · Union Plaani 0–2 PEPO
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko A
  • Fixture: Union Plaani vs PEPO
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Union Plaani 1.3 — PEPO 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Kakkonen - Lohko A Matches Track Union Plaani Next Match Prediction Track PEPO Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Union Plaani & PEPO!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Kakkonen - Lohko A Kakkonen - Lohko A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kiffen 18 12 3 3 39
2 PEPO 18 11 4 3 37
3 Atlantis 18 10 2 6 32
4 HIFK Elsinki 18 7 6 5 27
5 HPS 18 7 4 7 25
6 PPJ 18 5 8 5 23
7 Reipas 18 7 2 9 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 4 4 10 16
9 MyPa 18 4 3 11 15
10 Union Plaani 18 4 2 12 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atlantis 18 62 44 +18 32
2 Kiffen 18 41 24 +17 39
3 HIFK Elsinki 18 39 33 +6 27
4 HPS 18 39 41 -2 25
5 PEPO 18 36 23 +13 37
6 Reipas 18 35 35 0 23
7 PPJ 18 33 31 +2 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 26 38 -12 16
9 MyPa 18 20 39 -19 15
10 Union Plaani 18 19 42 -23 14
Kakkonen - Lohko A Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko A Predictions