Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko A / Reipas vs MyPa

Prediction Audit: Reipas vs MyPa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Reipas Reipas
Jul 25, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 39%
MyPa MyPa

The model missed the final outcome (Reipas win 4–2).

The model had projected MyPa at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MyPa Reipas ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Reipas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Reipas -35.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Reipas 34.7% 70.1% -35.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 16.0% +13.7 pp Model Edge
MyPa 35.6% 13.9% +21.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Reipas's win probability at 70.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 35.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Reipas win 4–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned MyPa; match finished Reipas

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on MyPa by 35.4 percentage points (71.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Reipas 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · MyPa 35.6%
    • xG · Reipas 1.29 — MyPa 1.31
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Reipas 1.28 · Draw 5.61 · MyPa 6.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Reipas 70.1% · Draw 16.0% · MyPa 13.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Reipas 1.28 · Draw 5.61 · MyPa 6.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Reipas 70.1% · Draw 16.0% · MyPa 13.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Reipas win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456461

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Reipas win · Reipas 4–2 MyPa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours MyPa; market prices Reipas instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Reipas 1.29 xG vs MyPa 1.31 → MyPa 35.6%
  • Market: Reipas ~13.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko A Kakkonen - Lohko A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kiffen 18 12 3 3 39
2 PEPO 18 11 4 3 37
3 Atlantis 18 10 2 6 32
4 HIFK Elsinki 18 7 6 5 27
5 HPS 18 7 4 7 25
6 PPJ 18 5 8 5 23
7 Reipas 18 7 2 9 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 4 4 10 16
9 MyPa 18 4 3 11 15
10 Union Plaani 18 4 2 12 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atlantis 18 62 44 +18 32
2 Kiffen 18 41 24 +17 39
3 HIFK Elsinki 18 39 33 +6 27
4 HPS 18 39 41 -2 25
5 PEPO 18 36 23 +13 37
6 Reipas 18 35 35 0 23
7 PPJ 18 33 31 +2 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 26 38 -12 16
9 MyPa 18 20 39 -19 15
10 Union Plaani 18 19 42 -23 14
Kakkonen - Lohko A Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko A Predictions