Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko A / HPS vs MyPa

Prediction Audit: HPS vs MyPa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

HPS HPS
Jul 18, 2026 - 14:00
5 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 30%
MyPa MyPa

The model missed the final outcome (HPS win 5–2).

The model had projected MyPa at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MyPa HPS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices HPS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: HPS -27.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
HPS 33.8% 61.6% -27.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.9% +8.7 pp Model Higher
MyPa 36.6% 17.5% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates HPS's win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was HPS win 5–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned MyPa; match finished HPS

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on MyPa by 27.8 percentage points (64.4% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · HPS 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · MyPa 36.6%
    • xG · HPS 1.27 — MyPa 1.33
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · HPS 1.47 · Draw 4.33 · MyPa 5.17
    • Implied 1X2 · HPS 61.6% · Draw 20.9% · MyPa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · HPS 1.47 · Draw 4.33 · MyPa 5.17
    • Implied 1X2 · HPS 61.6% · Draw 20.9% · MyPa 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result HPS win · 5–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1489025

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result HPS win · HPS 5–2 MyPa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko A
  • Fixture: HPS vs MyPa
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): HPS 1.27 — MyPa 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko A Kakkonen - Lohko A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kiffen 18 12 3 3 39
2 PEPO 18 11 4 3 37
3 Atlantis 18 10 2 6 32
4 HIFK Elsinki 18 7 6 5 27
5 HPS 18 7 4 7 25
6 PPJ 18 5 8 5 23
7 Reipas 18 7 2 9 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 4 4 10 16
9 MyPa 18 4 3 11 15
10 Union Plaani 18 4 2 12 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atlantis 18 62 44 +18 32
2 Kiffen 18 41 24 +17 39
3 HIFK Elsinki 18 39 33 +6 27
4 HPS 18 39 41 -2 25
5 PEPO 18 36 23 +13 37
6 Reipas 18 35 35 0 23
7 PPJ 18 33 31 +2 23
8 PuiU Helsinki 18 26 38 -12 16
9 MyPa 18 20 39 -19 15
10 Union Plaani 18 19 42 -23 14
Kakkonen - Lohko A Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko A Predictions