Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B / Ilves II vs Musa

Prediction Audit: Ilves II vs Musa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ilves II Ilves II
Aug 04, 2026 - 16:00
7 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 16%
Musa Musa

AI correctly predicted the Ilves II win.

The match finished 7–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ilves II Ilves II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 7-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ilves II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ilves II -39.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ilves II 42.4% 81.6% -39.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 10.3% +18.9 pp Model Edge
Musa 28.4% 8.1% +20.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ilves II's win probability at 81.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 39.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ilves II win 7–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ilves II higher (81.7% vs model 42.4%, 39.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ilves II win 7–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 04, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ilves II 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Musa 28.4%
    • xG · Ilves II 1.45 — Musa 1.15
  2. Aug 04, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ilves II 1.11 · Draw 8.79 · Musa 11.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Ilves II 81.6% · Draw 10.3% · Musa 8.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 04, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ilves II 1.11 · Draw 8.79 · Musa 11.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Ilves II 81.6% · Draw 10.3% · Musa 8.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ilves II win · 7–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 29/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (39 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 10:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2360789

Closing Odds 1.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ilves II win · Ilves II 7–0 Musa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ilves II; market prices Ilves II instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Ilves II 1.45 xG vs Musa 1.15 → Ilves II 42.4%
  • Market: Ilves II ~81.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko B Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Honka 18 13 4 1 43
2 ÅIFK 18 12 3 3 39
3 EPS 18 10 2 6 32
4 HJS Akatemia 18 9 4 5 31
5 Ilves II 18 8 6 4 30
6 P-Iirot 18 8 3 7 27
7 GrIFK 18 7 3 8 24
8 EBK 18 4 3 11 15
9 Musa 18 3 3 12 12
10 NJS 18 0 1 17 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Honka 18 56 17 +39 43
2 Ilves II 18 51 30 +21 30
3 EPS 18 39 26 +13 32
4 ÅIFK 18 38 18 +20 39
5 HJS Akatemia 18 30 24 +6 31
6 P-Iirot 18 30 25 +5 27
7 EBK 18 27 43 -16 15
8 GrIFK 18 23 31 -8 24
9 Musa 18 19 55 -36 12
10 NJS 18 10 54 -44 1
Kakkonen - Lohko B Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B Predictions