Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B / NJS vs P-Iirot

Prediction Audit: NJS vs P-Iirot Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NJS NJS
Aug 01, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
P-Iirot P-Iirot

AI correctly predicted the P-Iirot win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 P-Iirot P-Iirot ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices P-Iirot higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: P-Iirot -31.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NJS 33.8% 15.8% +18.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 16.6% +13.0 pp Model Edge
P-Iirot 36.6% 67.6% -31.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates P-Iirot's win probability at 67.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 31.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (P-Iirot win 0–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced P-Iirot higher (67.7% vs model 36.6%, 31.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (P-Iirot win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NJS 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · P-Iirot 36.6%
    • xG · NJS 1.27 — P-Iirot 1.33
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NJS 5.75 · Draw 5.46 · P-Iirot 1.34
    • Implied 1X2 · NJS 15.8% · Draw 16.6% · P-Iirot 67.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · NJS 5.75 · Draw 5.46 · P-Iirot 1.34
    • Implied 1X2 · NJS 15.8% · Draw 16.6% · P-Iirot 67.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result P-Iirot win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1808625

Closing Odds 1.34
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result P-Iirot win · NJS 0–1 P-Iirot
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours P-Iirot; market prices P-Iirot instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: NJS 1.27 xG vs P-Iirot 1.33 → P-Iirot 36.6%
  • Market: P-Iirot ~67.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko B Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Honka 18 13 4 1 43
2 ÅIFK 18 12 3 3 39
3 EPS 18 10 2 6 32
4 HJS Akatemia 18 9 4 5 31
5 Ilves II 18 8 6 4 30
6 P-Iirot 18 8 3 7 27
7 GrIFK 18 7 3 8 24
8 EBK 18 4 3 11 15
9 Musa 18 3 3 12 12
10 NJS 18 0 1 17 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Honka 18 56 17 +39 43
2 Ilves II 18 51 30 +21 30
3 EPS 18 39 26 +13 32
4 ÅIFK 18 38 18 +20 39
5 HJS Akatemia 18 30 24 +6 31
6 P-Iirot 18 30 25 +5 27
7 EBK 18 27 43 -16 15
8 GrIFK 18 23 31 -8 24
9 Musa 18 19 55 -36 12
10 NJS 18 10 54 -44 1
Kakkonen - Lohko B Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B Predictions