Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B / P-Iirot vs Ilves II

Prediction Audit: P-Iirot vs Ilves II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

P-Iirot P-Iirot
Jul 24, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
Ilves II Ilves II

The model missed the final outcome (P-Iirot win 2–1).

The model had projected Ilves II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ilves II P-Iirot ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +6.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
P-Iirot 34.2% 37.8% -3.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 23.0% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Ilves II 36.1% 39.1% -3.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.0%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was P-Iirot win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ilves II; match finished P-Iirot

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ilves II by 6.6 percentage points (29.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · P-Iirot 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Ilves II 36.1%
    • xG · P-Iirot 1.28 — Ilves II 1.32
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · P-Iirot 2.39 · Draw 3.93 · Ilves II 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · P-Iirot 37.8% · Draw 23.0% · Ilves II 39.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · P-Iirot 2.39 · Draw 3.93 · Ilves II 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · P-Iirot 37.8% · Draw 23.0% · Ilves II 39.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result P-Iirot win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 66/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452987

Closing Odds 3.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result P-Iirot win · P-Iirot 2–1 Ilves II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko B
  • Fixture: P-Iirot vs Ilves II
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): P-Iirot 1.28 — Ilves II 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko B Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Honka 18 13 4 1 43
2 ÅIFK 18 12 3 3 39
3 EPS 18 10 2 6 32
4 HJS Akatemia 18 9 4 5 31
5 Ilves II 18 8 6 4 30
6 P-Iirot 18 8 3 7 27
7 GrIFK 18 7 3 8 24
8 EBK 18 4 3 11 15
9 Musa 18 3 3 12 12
10 NJS 18 0 1 17 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Honka 18 56 17 +39 43
2 Ilves II 18 51 30 +21 30
3 EPS 18 39 26 +13 32
4 ÅIFK 18 38 18 +20 39
5 HJS Akatemia 18 30 24 +6 31
6 P-Iirot 18 30 25 +5 27
7 EBK 18 27 43 -16 15
8 GrIFK 18 23 31 -8 24
9 Musa 18 19 55 -36 12
10 NJS 18 10 54 -44 1
Kakkonen - Lohko B Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B Predictions