The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected P-Iirot at 40.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 P-Iirot Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBK | 31.6% | 36.8% | -5.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.6% | 23.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| P-Iirot | 40.8% | 40.0% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates EBK's win probability at 36.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.6%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on EBK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned P-Iirot; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on P-Iirot by 5.2 percentage points (46.0% vs model 40.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · EBK 31.6% · Draw 27.6% · P-Iirot 40.8%
- xG · EBK 1.18 — P-Iirot 1.42
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · EBK 2.46 · Draw 3.90 · P-Iirot 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · EBK 36.8% · Draw 23.2% · P-Iirot 40.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · EBK 2.46 · Draw 3.90 · P-Iirot 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · EBK 36.8% · Draw 23.2% · P-Iirot 40.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honka | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| 2 | ÅIFK | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 |
| 3 | EPS | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 4 | HJS Akatemia | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 5 | Ilves II | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | P-Iirot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | GrIFK | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | EBK | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | Musa | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honka | 18 | 56 | 17 | +39 | 43 |
| 2 | Ilves II | 18 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | EPS | 18 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 32 |
| 4 | ÅIFK | 18 | 38 | 18 | +20 | 39 |
| 5 | HJS Akatemia | 18 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 31 |
| 6 | P-Iirot | 18 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | EBK | 18 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 15 |
| 8 | GrIFK | 18 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 24 |
| 9 | Musa | 18 | 19 | 55 | -36 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS | 18 | 10 | 54 | -44 | 1 |
