Predictions / Football / Ethiopia. Premier League / Suhul Shire vs Kedus Giorgis

Prediction Audit: Suhul Shire vs Kedus Giorgis Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Suhul Shire Suhul Shire
Jun 22, 2026 - 07:00
0 0.80
0 0.90
xG Accuracy: 63%
Kedus Giorgis Kedus Giorgis

AI correctly predicted the Draw.

The match finished 0–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Suhul Shire higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Suhul Shire -11.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Suhul Shire 28.5% 40.2% -11.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 37.4% 30.6% +6.8 pp Model Higher
Kedus Giorgis 34.1% 29.2% +4.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Suhul Shire's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.5%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Draw 0–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Suhul Shire than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.70, 0 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Draw higher (49.1% vs model 37.4%, 11.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Draw 0–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 20:11 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Suhul Shire 28.5% · Draw 37.4% · Kedus Giorgis 34.1%
    • xG · Suhul Shire 0.80 — Kedus Giorgis 0.90
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Suhul Shire 2.25 · Draw 2.95 · Kedus Giorgis 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Suhul Shire 40.2% · Draw 30.6% · Kedus Giorgis 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Suhul Shire 2.25 · Draw 2.95 · Kedus Giorgis 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Suhul Shire 40.2% · Draw 30.6% · Kedus Giorgis 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 22, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3969474

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Suhul Shire 0–0 Kedus Giorgis
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Suhul Shire vs Kedus Giorgis
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.5% · Draw 37.4% · Away 34.1%
  • xG (showing): Suhul Shire 0.8 — Kedus Giorgis 0.9 (total xG ≈ 1.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 75.7% · Over 2.5 24.3%); BTTS No (Yes 34.4% · No 65.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.4% · No 65.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (18.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sidama Bunna 38 19 11 8 68
2 Negelle Arsi 38 15 15 8 60
3 Mekelakeya 38 14 15 9 57
4 Fasil Ketema 38 14 13 11 55
5 Mebrat Hayl 38 13 15 10 54
6 Kedus Giorgis 38 14 12 12 54
7 Welayta Dicha 38 11 18 9 51
8 Ethiopia Bunna 38 13 12 13 51
9 Awassa Kenema 38 12 14 12 50
10 Sheger Ketema 38 11 17 10 50
11 Bahardar 38 9 21 8 48
12 Hadiya Hosaena 38 11 15 12 48
13 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38 11 14 13 47
14 Ethiopian Medhin 38 10 16 12 46
15 Adama Kenema 38 10 16 12 46
16 Welwalo Adigrat Uni 38 10 16 12 46
17 Suhul Shire 38 9 15 14 42
18 Dire Dawa Kenema 38 9 15 14 42
19 Wolkite Ketema 0 0 0 0 0
19 Mekelle Kenema 38 8 16 14 40
20 Arba Minch Kenema 38 7 14 17 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38 45 45 0 47
2 Mekelakeya 38 44 31 +13 57
3 Sidama Bunna 38 43 23 +20 68
4 Ethiopia Bunna 38 40 39 +1 51
5 Negelle Arsi 38 37 30 +7 60
6 Welayta Dicha 38 37 31 +6 51
7 Awassa Kenema 38 37 32 +5 50
8 Adama Kenema 38 35 39 -4 46
9 Sheger Ketema 38 34 31 +3 50
10 Kedus Giorgis 38 33 31 +2 54
11 Mebrat Hayl 38 32 26 +6 54
12 Welwalo Adigrat Uni 38 32 36 -4 46
13 Hadiya Hosaena 38 31 35 -4 48
14 Ethiopian Medhin 38 30 31 -1 46
15 Arba Minch Kenema 38 30 46 -16 35
16 Fasil Ketema 38 28 28 0 55
17 Bahardar 38 28 28 0 48
18 Dire Dawa Kenema 38 27 41 -14 42
19 Mekelle Kenema 38 26 38 -12 40
20 Suhul Shire 38 24 32 -8 42
21 Wolkite Ketema 0 0 0 0 0
Premier League Ethiopia. Premier League Predictions