Predictions / Football / Ethiopia. Premier League / Arba Minch Kenema vs Suhul Shire

Prediction Audit: Arba Minch Kenema vs Suhul Shire Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema
Jun 15, 2026 - 12:00
2 0.83
0 0.89
xG Accuracy: 57%
Suhul Shire Suhul Shire

The model missed the final outcome (Arba Minch Kenema win 2–0).

The model had projected Draw at 37.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Draw Arba Minch Kenema ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Arba Minch Kenema higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arba Minch Kenema -9.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arba Minch Kenema 29.7% 39.4% -9.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 37.2% 31.9% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Suhul Shire 33.1% 28.8% +4.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Arba Minch Kenema's win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Arba Minch Kenema win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Arba Minch Kenema. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.72, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Arba Minch Kenema
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 9.7 percentage points (46.9% vs model 37.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 15, 2026 · 18:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arba Minch Kenema 29.7% · Draw 37.2% · Suhul Shire 33.0%
    • xG · Arba Minch Kenema 0.83 — Suhul Shire 0.89
  2. Jun 15, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arba Minch Kenema 2.30 · Draw 2.84 · Suhul Shire 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Arba Minch Kenema 39.4% · Draw 31.9% · Suhul Shire 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 15, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arba Minch Kenema 2.30 · Draw 2.84 · Suhul Shire 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Arba Minch Kenema 39.4% · Draw 31.9% · Suhul Shire 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 15, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Arba Minch Kenema win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1790505

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arba Minch Kenema win · Arba Minch Kenema 2–0 Suhul Shire
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Arba Minch Kenema vs Suhul Shire
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-15 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Arba Minch Kenema 0.83 — Suhul Shire 0.89 (total xG ≈ 1.72)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sidama Bunna 38 19 11 8 68
2 Negelle Arsi 38 15 15 8 60
3 Mekelakeya 38 14 15 9 57
4 Fasil Ketema 38 14 13 11 55
5 Mebrat Hayl 38 13 15 10 54
6 Kedus Giorgis 38 14 12 12 54
7 Welayta Dicha 38 11 18 9 51
8 Ethiopia Bunna 38 13 12 13 51
9 Awassa Kenema 38 12 14 12 50
10 Sheger Ketema 38 11 17 10 50
11 Bahardar 38 9 21 8 48
12 Hadiya Hosaena 38 11 15 12 48
13 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38 11 14 13 47
14 Ethiopian Medhin 38 10 16 12 46
15 Adama Kenema 38 10 16 12 46
16 Welwalo Adigrat Uni 38 10 16 12 46
17 Suhul Shire 38 9 15 14 42
18 Dire Dawa Kenema 38 9 15 14 42
19 Wolkite Ketema 0 0 0 0 0
19 Mekelle Kenema 38 8 16 14 40
20 Arba Minch Kenema 38 7 14 17 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38 45 45 0 47
2 Mekelakeya 38 44 31 +13 57
3 Sidama Bunna 38 43 23 +20 68
4 Ethiopia Bunna 38 40 39 +1 51
5 Negelle Arsi 38 37 30 +7 60
6 Welayta Dicha 38 37 31 +6 51
7 Awassa Kenema 38 37 32 +5 50
8 Adama Kenema 38 35 39 -4 46
9 Sheger Ketema 38 34 31 +3 50
10 Kedus Giorgis 38 33 31 +2 54
11 Mebrat Hayl 38 32 26 +6 54
12 Welwalo Adigrat Uni 38 32 36 -4 46
13 Hadiya Hosaena 38 31 35 -4 48
14 Ethiopian Medhin 38 30 31 -1 46
15 Arba Minch Kenema 38 30 46 -16 35
16 Fasil Ketema 38 28 28 0 55
17 Bahardar 38 28 28 0 48
18 Dire Dawa Kenema 38 27 41 -14 42
19 Mekelle Kenema 38 26 38 -12 40
20 Suhul Shire 38 24 32 -8 42
21 Wolkite Ketema 0 0 0 0 0