The model missed the final outcome (Næsby win 2–4).
The model had projected Hørsholm-Usserød at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Hørsholm-Usserød Næsby ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hørsholm-Usserød | 40.4% | 28.3% | +12.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 27.2% | 21.2% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Næsby | 32.4% | 50.5% | -18.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Næsby's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Næsby win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Næsby than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.98) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Hørsholm-Usserød; match finished Næsby
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hørsholm-Usserød by 18.1 percentage points (58.5% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hørsholm-Usserød 40.3% · Draw 27.2% · Næsby 32.5%
- xG · Hørsholm-Usserød 1.58 — Næsby 1.40
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hørsholm-Usserød 3.19 · Draw 4.27 · Næsby 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Hørsholm-Usserød 28.3% · Draw 21.2% · Næsby 50.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hørsholm-Usserød 3.19 · Draw 4.27 · Næsby 1.79
- Implied 1X2 · Hørsholm-Usserød 28.3% · Draw 21.2% · Næsby 50.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 13, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Næsby win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 55 |
| 2 | FA 2000 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 42 |
| 3 | Næsby | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 4 | Holbæk B&I | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 5 | Brønshøj | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 6 | Vanløse | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 7 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 8 | Frem | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 9 | Vejgaard B | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | Sundby | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 11 | Odder | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 12 | Lyseng | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 22 | 53 | 17 | +36 | 55 |
| 2 | Holbæk B&I | 22 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 32 |
| 3 | Næsby | 22 | 42 | 39 | +3 | 36 |
| 4 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 22 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 29 |
| 5 | Brønshøj | 22 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 32 |
| 6 | FA 2000 | 22 | 33 | 23 | +10 | 42 |
| 7 | Sundby | 22 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 24 |
| 8 | Vanløse | 22 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 31 |
| 9 | Vejgaard B | 22 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 26 |
| 10 | Odder | 22 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 | Frem | 22 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 28 |
| 12 | Lyseng | 22 | 14 | 38 | -24 | 17 |
