AI correctly predicted the Fortaleza U20 win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fortaleza U20 Fortaleza U20 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caucaia U20 | 21.1% | 13.8% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 26.5% | 21.2% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Fortaleza U20 | 52.5% | 65.0% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Fortaleza U20's win probability at 65.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 52.5%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fortaleza U20 win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Fortaleza U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Fortaleza U20 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fortaleza U20 higher (65.0% vs model 52.5%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fortaleza U20 win 1–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Caucaia U20 21.1% · Draw 26.5% · Fortaleza U20 52.4%
- xG · Caucaia U20 1.09 — Fortaleza U20 1.51
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Caucaia U20 7.53 · Draw 4.59 · Fortaleza U20 1.29
- Implied 1X2 · Caucaia U20 11.8% · Draw 19.4% · Fortaleza U20 68.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Caucaia U20 6.51 · Draw 4.23 · Fortaleza U20 1.38
- Implied 1X2 · Caucaia U20 13.8% · Draw 21.2% · Fortaleza U20 65.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fortaleza U20 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Cearense U20 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Pague Menos U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Pague Menos U20 | 4 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 6 |
| 3 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 5 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
