The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Karonga United at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Karonga United Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karonga United | 40.4% | 51.5% | -11.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.2% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Chitipa United | 30.1% | 20.2% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Karonga United's win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Karonga United than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Karonga United; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Karonga United by 11.1 percentage points (51.5% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Karonga United 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Chitipa United 30.1%
- xG · Karonga United 1.41 — Chitipa United 1.19
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Karonga United 1.72 · Draw 3.14 · Chitipa United 4.38
- Implied 1X2 · Karonga United 51.5% · Draw 28.2% · Chitipa United 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Karonga United 1.72 · Draw 3.14 · Chitipa United 4.38
- Implied 1X2 · Karonga United 51.5% · Draw 28.2% · Chitipa United 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Eagles | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 31 |
| 2 | Nyasa Big Bullets | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 30 |
| 3 | Be Forward Wanderers | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 29 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 29 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Moyale Barracks | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 8 | Mitundu Baptist | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 9 | Red Lions | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 10 | CIVO United | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Ekhaya | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| 14 | MAFCO | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 16 | Creck | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Be Forward Wanderers | 15 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Blue Eagles | 15 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 31 |
| 3 | Silver Strikers | 15 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 | Nyasa Big Bullets | 15 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 30 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 15 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Moyale Barracks | 15 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | Ekhaya | 15 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Kamuzu Barracks | 15 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 12 |
| 9 | Karonga United | 15 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 14 |
| 10 | Mitundu Baptist | 15 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 | Red Lions | 15 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 12 | MAFCO | 15 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 | Chitipa United | 15 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 21 |
| 14 | Creck | 15 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | CIVO United | 15 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 20 |
| 16 | Dedza Dynamos | 15 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 15 |
