The model missed the final outcome (Dedza Dynamos win 1–0).
The model had projected Nyasa Big Bullets at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Nyasa Big Bullets Dedza Dynamos ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedza Dynamos | 25.6% | 21.4% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.7% | 30.9% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Nyasa Big Bullets | 44.8% | 47.7% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Dedza Dynamos win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Nyasa Big Bullets; match finished Dedza Dynamos
Market lesson
The full-time result was Dedza Dynamos win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 20:53 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dedza Dynamos 25.6% · Draw 29.6% · Nyasa Big Bullets 44.8%
- xG · Dedza Dynamos 1.13 — Nyasa Big Bullets 1.47
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dedza Dynamos 4.15 · Draw 2.87 · Nyasa Big Bullets 1.86
- Implied 1X2 · Dedza Dynamos 21.4% · Draw 30.9% · Nyasa Big Bullets 47.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dedza Dynamos 4.15 · Draw 2.87 · Nyasa Big Bullets 1.86
- Implied 1X2 · Dedza Dynamos 21.4% · Draw 30.9% · Nyasa Big Bullets 47.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dedza Dynamos win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Eagles | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 31 |
| 2 | Nyasa Big Bullets | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 30 |
| 3 | Be Forward Wanderers | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 29 |
| 4 | Silver Strikers | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 29 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Moyale Barracks | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 8 | Mitundu Baptist | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 9 | Red Lions | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 10 | CIVO United | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Ekhaya | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Dedza Dynamos | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
| 13 | Karonga United | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| 14 | MAFCO | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| 16 | Creck | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Be Forward Wanderers | 15 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Blue Eagles | 15 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 31 |
| 3 | Silver Strikers | 15 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 29 |
| 4 | Nyasa Big Bullets | 15 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 30 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 15 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Moyale Barracks | 15 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | Ekhaya | 15 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Kamuzu Barracks | 15 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 12 |
| 9 | Karonga United | 15 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 14 |
| 10 | Mitundu Baptist | 15 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 | Red Lions | 15 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 12 | MAFCO | 15 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 | Chitipa United | 15 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 21 |
| 14 | Creck | 15 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | CIVO United | 15 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 20 |
| 16 | Dedza Dynamos | 15 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 15 |
