Prediction Audit: Blooming vs Real Tomayapo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Blooming

Jul 20, 2026 - 00:30

1 2.78

0 1.04

xG Accuracy: 46%

Real Tomayapo

AI correctly predicted the Blooming win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Blooming Blooming ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0, 1-1 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Blooming	71.8%	67.9%	+4.0 pp	Aligned
Draw	17.1%	18.3%	-1.2 pp	Aligned
Real Tomayapo	11.1%	13.8%	-2.8 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Blooming win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Blooming attacking xG significantly stronger (2.78 vs 1.04)

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Blooming win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 20, 2026 · 13:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Blooming 71.9% · Draw 17.1% · Real Tomayapo 11.1%
- xG · Blooming 2.78 — Real Tomayapo 1.04
Jul 19, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Blooming 1.35 · Draw 5.01 · Real Tomayapo 6.62
- Implied 1X2 · Blooming 67.9% · Draw 18.3% · Real Tomayapo 13.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 20, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Blooming 1.35 · Draw 5.01 · Real Tomayapo 6.62
- Implied 1X2 · Blooming 67.9% · Draw 18.3% · Real Tomayapo 13.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 20, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Blooming win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 65/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pass
High xG deviation from league baseline (106%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 80/100

Betting Confidence 68/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 22:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3484321

Closing Odds 1.35

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Blooming win · Blooming 1–0 Real Tomayapo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Bolivia Primera División
Fixture: Blooming vs Real Tomayapo
Kickoff: 2026-07-20 00:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Blooming 2.78 — Real Tomayapo 1.04 (total xG ≈ 3.82)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Always Ready	20	13	6	1	45
2	Bolívar	20	14	3	3	45
3	The Strongest	20	12	6	2	42
4	Real Potosí	20	8	8	4	32
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	9	3	8	30
6	Aurora	20	7	9	4	30
7	Guabirá	20	8	5	7	29
8	Blooming	20	6	9	5	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	8	3	9	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	7	4	9	25
11	Real Oruro	20	6	3	11	21
12	ABB	20	6	2	12	20
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	6	2	12	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	20	5	3	12	18
15	Real Tomayapo	20	4	4	12	16
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	2	8	10	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bolívar	20	54	22	+32	45
2	Always Ready	20	47	13	+34	45
3	The Strongest	20	39	22	+17	42
4	Oriente Petrolero	20	36	27	+9	30
5	Guabirá	20	32	39	-7	29
6	Real Oruro	20	32	50	-18	21
7	Aurora	20	31	27	+4	30
8	ABB	20	31	45	-14	20
9	Blooming	20	30	22	+8	27
10	Nacional Potosí	20	30	28	+2	27
11	Real Potosí	20	27	14	+13	32
12	Independiente Petrolero	20	27	35	-8	25
13	Universitario de Vinto	20	26	39	-13	18
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	21	37	-16	14
15	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	21	40	-19	20
16	Real Tomayapo	20	15	39	-24	16

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bolívar	20	1.6	1.4	+0.2	45
2	Real Potosí	20	1.4	1.6	-0.2	32
3	Always Ready	20	—	—	—	45
4	The Strongest	20	—	—	—	42
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	—	—	—	30
6	Aurora	20	—	—	—	30
7	Guabirá	20	—	—	—	29
8	Blooming	20	—	—	—	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	—	—	—	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	—	—	—	25
11	Real Oruro	20	—	—	—	21
12	ABB	20	—	—	—	20
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	—	—	—	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	20	—	—	—	18
15	Real Tomayapo	20	—	—	—	16
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	—	—	—	14