Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Nacional AM vs Monte Roraima

Prediction Audit: Nacional AM vs Monte Roraima Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nacional AM Nacional AM
Jun 14, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Monte Roraima Monte Roraima

AI correctly predicted the Nacional AM win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nacional AM Nacional AM ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Nacional AM higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nacional AM -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nacional AM 41.8% 54.1% -12.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.7% 23.9% +4.8 pp Aligned
Monte Roraima 29.5% 22.0% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Nacional AM's win probability at 54.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Nacional AM win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Nacional AM than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Nacional AM higher (54.1% vs model 41.8%, 12.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Nacional AM win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 14, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nacional AM 41.8% · Draw 28.7% · Monte Roraima 29.5%
    • xG · Nacional AM 1.32 — Monte Roraima 1.28
  2. Jun 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nacional AM 1.64 · Draw 3.71 · Monte Roraima 4.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Nacional AM 54.1% · Draw 23.9% · Monte Roraima 22.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 14, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nacional AM 1.64 · Draw 3.71 · Monte Roraima 4.04
    • Implied 1X2 · Nacional AM 54.1% · Draw 23.9% · Monte Roraima 22.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 14, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nacional AM win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 38/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1619880

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nacional AM win · Nacional AM 3–1 Monte Roraima
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Nacional AM vs Monte Roraima
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away 29.5%
  • xG (showing): Nacional AM 1.32 — Monte Roraima 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.3% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +15.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5