The model missed the final outcome (Queanbeyan City win 1–2).
The model had projected Canberra Juventus at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Canberra Juventus Queanbeyan City ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canberra Juventus | 36.1% | 29.0% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.4% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Queanbeyan City | 34.2% | 48.5% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Queanbeyan City's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Queanbeyan City win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Queanbeyan City than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Canberra Juventus; match finished Queanbeyan City
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Canberra Juventus by 14.3 percentage points (50.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 06:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Canberra Juventus 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Queanbeyan City 34.2%
- xG · Canberra Juventus 1.32 — Queanbeyan City 1.28
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 05:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Canberra Juventus 2.72 · Draw 3.74 · Queanbeyan City 2.04
- Implied 1X2 · Canberra Juventus 32.7% · Draw 23.8% · Queanbeyan City 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 06:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Canberra Juventus 3.08 · Draw 3.98 · Queanbeyan City 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Canberra Juventus 29.0% · Draw 22.4% · Queanbeyan City 48.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 06:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Queanbeyan City win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Capital Territory NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 71 | 26 | +45 | 46 |
| 2 | Canberra FC | 20 | 64 | 24 | +40 | 52 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 59 | 24 | +35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 42 |
| 5 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 23 |
| 6 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 38 |
| 7 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 33 |
| 8 | Belconnen United | 20 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 9 |
| 9 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 20 |
| 10 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 17 | 60 | -43 | 7 |
| 11 | Brindabella | 20 | 15 | 66 | -51 | 9 |
