Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 3 / FK Spartak Tambov vs Kvant

Prediction Audit: FK Spartak Tambov vs Kvant Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Spartak Tambov FK Spartak Tambov
Sep 26, 2026 - 15:00
4 1.61
0 0.99
xG Accuracy: 40%
Kvant Kvant

AI correctly predicted the FK Spartak Tambov win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FK Spartak Tambov FK Spartak Tambov ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Spartak Tambov higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Spartak Tambov -33.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Spartak Tambov 50.3% 83.8% -33.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.0% 10.7% +17.3 pp Model Edge
Kvant 21.7% 5.5% +16.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates FK Spartak Tambov's win probability at 83.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.3%, a difference of 33.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FK Spartak Tambov win 4–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • FK Spartak Tambov attacking xG significantly stronger (1.61 vs 0.99)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FK Spartak Tambov higher (83.8% vs model 50.3%, 33.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FK Spartak Tambov win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Spartak Tambov 50.2% · Draw 28.0% · Kvant 21.7%
    • xG · FK Spartak Tambov 1.61 — Kvant 0.99
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Tambov 1.06 · Draw 8.30 · Kvant 16.00
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Tambov 83.8% · Draw 10.7% · Kvant 5.5%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Tambov 1.06 · Draw 8.30 · Kvant 16.00
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Tambov 83.8% · Draw 10.7% · Kvant 5.5%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Spartak Tambov win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (33 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10111324

Closing Odds 1.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Spartak Tambov win · FK Spartak Tambov 4–0 Kvant
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FK Spartak Tambov; market prices FK Spartak Tambov instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FK Spartak Tambov 1.61 xG vs Kvant 0.99 → FK Spartak Tambov 50.3%
  • Market: FK Spartak Tambov ~83.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.8% · No 48.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 3 Second League - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 18 2 2 56
2 FK Spartak Tambov 22 17 2 3 53
3 Shumbrat 22 12 4 6 40
4 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 12 4 6 40
5 Ryazan 21 11 7 3 40
6 Salyut-Belgorod 22 12 3 7 39
7 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 11 5 6 38
8 Avangard Kursk 22 8 6 8 30
9 Rodina Moskva III 22 8 4 10 28
10 Strogino 22 7 4 11 25
11 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 7 3 12 24
12 Zenit Penza 21 7 2 12 23
13 Orel 22 6 5 11 23
14 Rotor-2 22 4 2 16 14
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 2 8 12 14
16 Kvant 22 1 3 18 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 47 13 +34 56
2 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 41 27 +14 38
3 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 41 31 +10 40
4 Shumbrat 22 40 29 +11 40
5 Rodina Moskva III 22 38 35 +3 28
6 FK Spartak Tambov 22 37 12 +25 53
7 Salyut-Belgorod 22 37 21 +16 39
8 Ryazan 21 35 13 +22 40
9 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 30 38 -8 24
10 Avangard Kursk 22 28 29 -1 30
11 Strogino 22 26 36 -10 25
12 Orel 22 26 39 -13 23
13 Zenit Penza 21 24 40 -16 23
14 Kvant 22 22 64 -42 6
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 19 44 -25 14
16 Rotor-2 22 15 35 -20 14
Second League - Group 3 Russia. Second League - Group 3 Predictions