The model missed the final outcome (Strogino win 1–2).
The model had projected Arsenal Tula II at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Arsenal Tula II Strogino ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula II | 46.3% | 20.8% | +25.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.7% | 24.4% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Strogino | 25.0% | 54.8% | -29.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Strogino's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.0%, a difference of 29.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Strogino win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Arsenal Tula II; match finished Strogino
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Arsenal Tula II by 29.9 percentage points (76.2% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Arsenal Tula II 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Strogino 24.9%
- xG · Arsenal Tula II 1.53 — Strogino 1.07
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tula II 4.33 · Draw 3.68 · Strogino 1.64
- Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tula II 20.8% · Draw 24.4% · Strogino 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tula II 4.33 · Draw 3.68 · Strogino 1.64
- Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tula II 20.8% · Draw 24.4% · Strogino 54.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Strogino win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (30 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 47 | 13 | +34 | 56 |
| 2 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 38 |
| 3 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 40 |
| 4 | Shumbrat | 22 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 40 |
| 5 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 37 | 12 | +25 | 53 |
| 7 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 37 | 21 | +16 | 39 |
| 8 | Ryazan | 21 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 40 |
| 9 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 24 |
| 10 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 30 |
| 11 | Strogino | 22 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Orel | 22 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 23 |
| 13 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 23 |
| 14 | Kvant | 22 | 22 | 64 | -42 | 6 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 19 | 44 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 14 |
