Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 3 / Ryazan vs Salyut-Belgorod

Prediction Audit: Ryazan vs Salyut-Belgorod Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ryazan Ryazan
Aug 28, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.20
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
Salyut-Belgorod Salyut-Belgorod

The model missed the final outcome (Ryazan win 1–0).

The model had projected Salyut-Belgorod at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Salyut-Belgorod Ryazan ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Ryazan higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ryazan -5.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ryazan 30.6% 36.2% -5.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 27.6% +1.9 pp Aligned
Salyut-Belgorod 39.9% 36.2% +3.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Ryazan's win probability at 36.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ryazan win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Ryazan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Salyut-Belgorod; match finished Ryazan

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Salyut-Belgorod by 5.6 percentage points (45.5% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ryazan 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Salyut-Belgorod 40.0%
    • xG · Ryazan 1.20 — Salyut-Belgorod 1.40
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ryazan 2.48 · Draw 3.26 · Salyut-Belgorod 2.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Ryazan 36.2% · Draw 27.6% · Salyut-Belgorod 36.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ryazan 2.48 · Draw 3.26 · Salyut-Belgorod 2.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Ryazan 36.2% · Draw 27.6% · Salyut-Belgorod 36.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ryazan win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4928424

Closing Odds 2.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ryazan win · Ryazan 1–0 Salyut-Belgorod
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League - Group 3
  • Fixture: Ryazan vs Salyut-Belgorod
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Ryazan 1.2 — Salyut-Belgorod 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 3 Second League - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 18 2 2 56
2 FK Spartak Tambov 22 17 2 3 53
3 Shumbrat 22 12 4 6 40
4 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 12 4 6 40
5 Ryazan 21 11 7 3 40
6 Salyut-Belgorod 22 12 3 7 39
7 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 11 5 6 38
8 Avangard Kursk 22 8 6 8 30
9 Rodina Moskva III 22 8 4 10 28
10 Strogino 22 7 4 11 25
11 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 7 3 12 24
12 Zenit Penza 21 7 2 12 23
13 Orel 22 6 5 11 23
14 Rotor-2 22 4 2 16 14
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 2 8 12 14
16 Kvant 22 1 3 18 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 47 13 +34 56
2 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 41 27 +14 38
3 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 41 31 +10 40
4 Shumbrat 22 40 29 +11 40
5 Rodina Moskva III 22 38 35 +3 28
6 FK Spartak Tambov 22 37 12 +25 53
7 Salyut-Belgorod 22 37 21 +16 39
8 Ryazan 21 35 13 +22 40
9 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 30 38 -8 24
10 Avangard Kursk 22 28 29 -1 30
11 Strogino 22 26 36 -10 25
12 Orel 22 26 39 -13 23
13 Zenit Penza 21 24 40 -16 23
14 Kvant 22 22 64 -42 6
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 19 44 -25 14
16 Rotor-2 22 15 35 -20 14
Second League - Group 3 Russia. Second League - Group 3 Predictions