Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 3 / FK Spartak Tambov vs Arsenal Tula II

Prediction Audit: FK Spartak Tambov vs Arsenal Tula II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Spartak Tambov FK Spartak Tambov
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 85%
Arsenal Tula II Arsenal Tula II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected FK Spartak Tambov at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Spartak Tambov Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Spartak Tambov higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Spartak Tambov -44.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Spartak Tambov 38.5% 83.1% -44.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 12.8% +16.8 pp Model Edge
Arsenal Tula II 31.9% 4.1% +27.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates FK Spartak Tambov's win probability at 83.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 44.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FK Spartak Tambov; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FK Spartak Tambov by 44.6 percentage points (83.1% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Spartak Tambov 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Arsenal Tula II 31.9%
    • xG · FK Spartak Tambov 1.37 — Arsenal Tula II 1.23
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Tambov 1.08 · Draw 7.00 · Arsenal Tula II 22.00
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Tambov 83.1% · Draw 12.8% · Arsenal Tula II 4.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · FK Spartak Tambov 1.08 · Draw 7.00 · Arsenal Tula II 22.00
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Spartak Tambov 83.1% · Draw 12.8% · Arsenal Tula II 4.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 27/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (45 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3358021

Closing Odds 1.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FK Spartak Tambov 1–1 Arsenal Tula II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FK Spartak Tambov; market prices FK Spartak Tambov instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FK Spartak Tambov 1.37 xG vs Arsenal Tula II 1.23 → FK Spartak Tambov 38.5%
  • Market: FK Spartak Tambov ~83.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 3 Second League - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 18 2 2 56
2 FK Spartak Tambov 22 17 2 3 53
3 Shumbrat 22 12 4 6 40
4 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 12 4 6 40
5 Ryazan 21 11 7 3 40
6 Salyut-Belgorod 22 12 3 7 39
7 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 11 5 6 38
8 Avangard Kursk 22 8 6 8 30
9 Rodina Moskva III 22 8 4 10 28
10 Strogino 22 7 4 11 25
11 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 7 3 12 24
12 Zenit Penza 21 7 2 12 23
13 Orel 22 6 5 11 23
14 Rotor-2 22 4 2 16 14
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 2 8 12 14
16 Kvant 22 1 3 18 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya 22 47 13 +34 56
2 Metallurg Lipetsk 22 41 27 +14 38
3 Saturn Ramenskoye 22 41 31 +10 40
4 Shumbrat 22 40 29 +11 40
5 Rodina Moskva III 22 38 35 +3 28
6 FK Spartak Tambov 22 37 12 +25 53
7 Salyut-Belgorod 22 37 21 +16 39
8 Ryazan 21 35 13 +22 40
9 SKA Khabarovsk II 22 30 38 -8 24
10 Avangard Kursk 22 28 29 -1 30
11 Strogino 22 26 36 -10 25
12 Orel 22 26 39 -13 23
13 Zenit Penza 21 24 40 -16 23
14 Kvant 22 22 64 -42 6
15 Arsenal Tula II 22 19 44 -25 14
16 Rotor-2 22 15 35 -20 14
Second League - Group 3 Russia. Second League - Group 3 Predictions