The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Metallurg Lipetsk at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Metallurg Lipetsk Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallurg Lipetsk | 38.0% | 43.0% | -5.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.4% | -1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Ryazan | 32.4% | 25.5% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Ryazan's win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.5%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ryazan.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Metallurg Lipetsk; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Metallurg Lipetsk by 6.8 percentage points (31.1% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Metallurg Lipetsk 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Ryazan 32.4%
- xG · Metallurg Lipetsk 1.36 — Ryazan 1.24
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Metallurg Lipetsk 2.09 · Draw 2.86 · Ryazan 3.52
- Implied 1X2 · Metallurg Lipetsk 43.0% · Draw 31.4% · Ryazan 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Metallurg Lipetsk 2.09 · Draw 2.86 · Ryazan 3.52
- Implied 1X2 · Metallurg Lipetsk 43.0% · Draw 31.4% · Ryazan 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 47 | 13 | +34 | 56 |
| 2 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 38 |
| 3 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 40 |
| 4 | Shumbrat | 22 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 40 |
| 5 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 37 | 12 | +25 | 53 |
| 7 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 37 | 21 | +16 | 39 |
| 8 | Ryazan | 21 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 40 |
| 9 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 24 |
| 10 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 30 |
| 11 | Strogino | 22 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Orel | 22 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 23 |
| 13 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 23 |
| 14 | Kvant | 22 | 22 | 64 | -42 | 6 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 19 | 44 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 14 |
