Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 2 / Baltika II vs Cherepovets

Prediction Audit: Baltika II vs Cherepovets Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baltika II Baltika II
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Cherepovets Cherepovets

The model missed the final outcome (Cherepovets win 1–4).

The model had projected Baltika II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Baltika II Cherepovets ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Baltika II; match finished Cherepovets

Market lesson

The full-time result was Cherepovets win 1–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Baltika II 1.32 — Cherepovets 1.28
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Cherepovets win · 1–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8678917

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cherepovets win · Baltika II 1–4 Cherepovets
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League - Group 2
  • Fixture: Baltika II vs Cherepovets
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Baltika II 1.32 — Cherepovets 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 2 Second League - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Murom 21 14 2 5 44
1 Sevastopol 14 10 2 2 32
2 Dinamo St. Petersburg 20 12 6 2 42
2 Shahter Taganrog 14 9 3 2 30
3 Luki-Energiya 21 12 6 3 42
3 Rostov II 14 9 2 3 29
4 Baltika II 21 12 4 5 40
4 Nart Cherkessk 14 7 3 4 24
5 Chertanovo Moscow 21 11 6 4 39
5 Kyzyltash 14 7 2 5 23
6 Torpedo Vladimir 20 9 5 6 32
6 Spartak Nalchik 14 6 5 3 23
7 Kosmos Dolgoprudny 21 8 4 9 28
7 Druzhba 14 6 4 4 22
8 Tver 21 7 3 11 24
8 Pobeda 14 6 3 5 21
9 Cherepovets 20 7 3 10 24
9 Rubin Yalta 14 5 5 4 20
10 Zvezda St. Petersburg 20 5 9 6 24
10 Lugansk 14 4 3 7 15
11 Dinamo Vologda 20 6 5 9 23
11 Izberbash 14 5 0 9 15
12 Spartak Moscow 2 21 6 5 10 23
12 Angust Nazran 14 4 1 9 13
13 Yenisey II 21 5 4 12 19
13 Astrakhan 14 3 3 8 12
14 Iskra Smolensk 21 3 6 12 15
14 Dynamo Makhachkala II 14 2 3 9 9
15 Irkutsk 21 3 2 16 11
15 FK Chayka 2 14 2 1 11 7
16 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Baltika II 21 42 23 +19 40
2 Chertanovo Moscow 21 39 18 +21 39
3 Luki-Energiya 21 36 18 +18 42
4 Murom 21 35 17 +18 44
5 Dinamo St. Petersburg 20 32 10 +22 42
6 Tver 21 30 36 -6 24
7 Zvezda St. Petersburg 20 29 29 0 24
8 Rostov II 14 28 14 +14 29
9 Dinamo Vologda 20 28 25 +3 23
10 Pobeda 14 26 16 +10 21
11 Torpedo Vladimir 20 25 20 +5 32
12 Shahter Taganrog 14 24 9 +15 30
13 Kosmos Dolgoprudny 21 24 30 -6 28
14 Sevastopol 14 23 9 +14 32
15 Yenisey II 21 23 40 -17 19
16 Kyzyltash 14 22 17 +5 23
17 Spartak Nalchik 14 21 10 +11 23
18 Spartak Moscow 2 21 21 27 -6 23
19 Cherepovets 20 21 32 -11 24
20 Nart Cherkessk 14 19 10 +9 24
21 Iskra Smolensk 21 19 44 -25 15
22 Rubin Yalta 14 17 13 +4 20
23 Druzhba 14 17 14 +3 22
24 Lugansk 14 15 22 -7 15
25 Izberbash 14 13 36 -23 15
26 Astrakhan 14 12 20 -8 12
27 Irkutsk 21 11 46 -35 11
28 Dynamo Makhachkala II 14 10 26 -16 9
29 FK Chayka 2 14 10 32 -22 7
30 Angust Nazran 14 7 16 -9 13
31 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
Second League - Group 2 Russia. Second League - Group 2 Predictions