Prediction Audit: Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sevastopol

Sep 05, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.47

1 1.13

xG Accuracy: 83%

Kyzyltash

AI correctly predicted the Sevastopol win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sevastopol Sevastopol ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sevastopol	43.4%	67.0%	-23.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.1%	21.1%	+8.0 pp	Model Higher
Kyzyltash	27.5%	11.8%	+15.7 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sevastopol's win probability at 67.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 23.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sevastopol win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sevastopol higher (67.1% vs model 43.4%, 23.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sevastopol win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 05, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sevastopol 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Kyzyltash 27.5%
- xG · Sevastopol 1.47 — Kyzyltash 1.13
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sevastopol 1.34 · Draw 4.25 · Kyzyltash 7.60
- Implied 1X2 · Sevastopol 67.0% · Draw 21.1% · Kyzyltash 11.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sevastopol 1.34 · Draw 4.25 · Kyzyltash 7.60
- Implied 1X2 · Sevastopol 67.0% · Draw 21.1% · Kyzyltash 11.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Sevastopol win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (24 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6137884

Closing Odds 1.34

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sevastopol win · Sevastopol 2–1 Kyzyltash

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League - Group 1
Fixture: Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
xG (showing): Sevastopol 1.47 — Kyzyltash 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	16	2	3	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	14	4	3	46
3	Rostov II	21	14	4	3	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	9	7	4	34
5	Pobeda	20	10	3	7	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	9	4	8	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	9	3	8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	7	7	6	28
9	Druzhba	20	7	6	7	27
10	Lugansk	21	6	6	9	24
11	Astrakhan	20	5	5	10	20
12	Izberbash	21	6	0	15	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	4	4	12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	4	2	15	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	3	5	13	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rostov II	21	45	16	+29	46
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	42	20	+22	46
3	Sevastopol	21	38	17	+21	50
4	Pobeda	20	38	27	+11	33
5	Kyzyltash	21	36	30	+6	31
6	Rubin Yalta	20	29	19	+10	34
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	27	19	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	27	20	+7	28
9	Lugansk	21	24	30	-6	24
10	Druzhba	20	23	25	-2	27
11	Astrakhan	20	22	32	-10	20
12	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	19	39	-20	14
13	Izberbash	21	19	57	-38	18
14	FK Chayka 2	21	17	43	-26	14
15	Angust Nazran	20	9	21	-12	16
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0