Prediction Audit: Nart Cherkessk vs Rubin Yalta Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nart Cherkessk

Aug 22, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.51

1 1.09

xG Accuracy: 64%

Rubin Yalta

The model missed the final outcome (Rubin Yalta win 0–1).

The model had projected Nart Cherkessk at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nart Cherkessk Rubin Yalta ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Nart Cherkessk	45.3%	41.4%	+3.9 pp	Aligned
Draw	28.9%	26.8%	+2.0 pp	Aligned
Rubin Yalta	25.8%	31.8%	-6.0 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Rubin Yalta's win probability at 31.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.8%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Rubin Yalta win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Rubin Yalta. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Nart Cherkessk; match finished Rubin Yalta

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Nart Cherkessk by 6.0 percentage points (51.3% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nart Cherkessk 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Rubin Yalta 25.8%
- xG · Nart Cherkessk 1.51 — Rubin Yalta 1.09
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nart Cherkessk 2.19 · Draw 3.34 · Rubin Yalta 2.80
- Implied 1X2 · Nart Cherkessk 41.0% · Draw 26.9% · Rubin Yalta 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nart Cherkessk 2.17 · Draw 3.35 · Rubin Yalta 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Nart Cherkessk 41.4% · Draw 26.8% · Rubin Yalta 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Rubin Yalta win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 70/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4221382

Closing Odds 2.83

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Rubin Yalta win · Nart Cherkessk 0–1 Rubin Yalta

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second League - Group 1
Fixture: Nart Cherkessk vs Rubin Yalta
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
xG (showing): Nart Cherkessk 1.51 — Rubin Yalta 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sevastopol	21	16	2	3	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	14	4	3	46
3	Rostov II	21	14	4	3	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	9	7	4	34
5	Pobeda	20	10	3	7	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	9	4	8	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	9	3	8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	7	7	6	28
9	Druzhba	20	7	6	7	27
10	Lugansk	21	6	6	9	24
11	Astrakhan	20	5	5	10	20
12	Izberbash	21	6	0	15	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	4	4	12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	4	2	15	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	3	5	13	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rostov II	21	45	16	+29	46
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	42	20	+22	46
3	Sevastopol	21	38	17	+21	50
4	Pobeda	20	38	27	+11	33
5	Kyzyltash	21	36	30	+6	31
6	Rubin Yalta	20	29	19	+10	34
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	27	19	+8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	27	20	+7	28
9	Lugansk	21	24	30	-6	24
10	Druzhba	20	23	25	-2	27
11	Astrakhan	20	22	32	-10	20
12	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	19	39	-20	14
13	Izberbash	21	19	57	-38	18
14	FK Chayka 2	21	17	43	-26	14
15	Angust Nazran	20	9	21	-12	16
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0