Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 1 / Angust Nazran vs Sevastopol

Prediction Audit: Angust Nazran vs Sevastopol Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Angust Nazran Angust Nazran
Aug 22, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.13
1 1.47
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sevastopol Sevastopol

AI correctly predicted the Sevastopol win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sevastopol Sevastopol ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sevastopol higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sevastopol -22.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Angust Nazran 27.5% 13.5% +14.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.1% 20.4% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Sevastopol 43.4% 66.1% -22.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sevastopol's win probability at 66.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sevastopol win 0–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sevastopol higher (66.1% vs model 43.4%, 22.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sevastopol win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Angust Nazran 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Sevastopol 43.3%
    • xG · Angust Nazran 1.13 — Sevastopol 1.47
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Angust Nazran 6.65 · Draw 4.40 · Sevastopol 1.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Angust Nazran 13.5% · Draw 20.4% · Sevastopol 66.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Angust Nazran 6.65 · Draw 4.40 · Sevastopol 1.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Angust Nazran 13.5% · Draw 20.4% · Sevastopol 66.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sevastopol win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4221365

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sevastopol win · Angust Nazran 0–1 Sevastopol
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League - Group 1
  • Fixture: Angust Nazran vs Sevastopol
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Angust Nazran 1.13 — Sevastopol 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 1 Second League - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sevastopol 21 16 2 3 50
2 Shahter Taganrog 21 14 4 3 46
3 Rostov II 21 14 4 3 46
4 Rubin Yalta 20 9 7 4 34
5 Pobeda 20 10 3 7 33
6 Kyzyltash 21 9 4 8 31
7 Nart Cherkessk 20 9 3 8 30
8 Spartak Nalchik 20 7 7 6 28
9 Druzhba 20 7 6 7 27
10 Lugansk 21 6 6 9 24
11 Astrakhan 20 5 5 10 20
12 Izberbash 21 6 0 15 18
13 Angust Nazran 20 4 4 12 16
14 FK Chayka 2 21 4 2 15 14
15 Dynamo Makhachkala II 21 3 5 13 14
16 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rostov II 21 45 16 +29 46
2 Shahter Taganrog 21 42 20 +22 46
3 Sevastopol 21 38 17 +21 50
4 Pobeda 20 38 27 +11 33
5 Kyzyltash 21 36 30 +6 31
6 Rubin Yalta 20 29 19 +10 34
7 Nart Cherkessk 20 27 19 +8 30
8 Spartak Nalchik 20 27 20 +7 28
9 Lugansk 21 24 30 -6 24
10 Druzhba 20 23 25 -2 27
11 Astrakhan 20 22 32 -10 20
12 Dynamo Makhachkala II 21 19 39 -20 14
13 Izberbash 21 19 57 -38 18
14 FK Chayka 2 21 17 43 -26 14
15 Angust Nazran 20 9 21 -12 16
16 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
Second League - Group 1 Russia. Second League - Group 1 Predictions