Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 1 / Sevastopol vs Astrakhan

Prediction Audit: Sevastopol vs Astrakhan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sevastopol Sevastopol
Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.45
4 1.15
xG Accuracy: 30%
Astrakhan Astrakhan

The model missed the final outcome (Astrakhan win 3–4).

The model had projected Sevastopol at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sevastopol Astrakhan ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sevastopol higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sevastopol -31.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sevastopol 42.4% 74.2% -31.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 18.7% +10.6 pp Model Edge
Astrakhan 28.4% 7.0% +21.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sevastopol's win probability at 74.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 31.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Astrakhan win 3–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sevastopol; match finished Astrakhan

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sevastopol by 31.9 percentage points (74.3% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sevastopol 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Astrakhan 28.4%
    • xG · Sevastopol 1.45 — Astrakhan 1.15
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sevastopol 1.21 · Draw 4.80 · Astrakhan 12.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Sevastopol 74.2% · Draw 18.7% · Astrakhan 7.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sevastopol 1.21 · Draw 4.80 · Astrakhan 12.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Sevastopol 74.2% · Draw 18.7% · Astrakhan 7.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Astrakhan win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3350884

Closing Odds 1.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Astrakhan win · Sevastopol 3–4 Astrakhan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sevastopol; market prices Sevastopol instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Sevastopol 1.45 xG vs Astrakhan 1.15 → Sevastopol 42.4%
  • Market: Sevastopol ~74.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 1 Second League - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sevastopol 21 16 2 3 50
2 Shahter Taganrog 21 14 4 3 46
3 Rostov II 21 14 4 3 46
4 Rubin Yalta 20 9 7 4 34
5 Pobeda 20 10 3 7 33
6 Kyzyltash 21 9 4 8 31
7 Nart Cherkessk 20 9 3 8 30
8 Spartak Nalchik 20 7 7 6 28
9 Druzhba 20 7 6 7 27
10 Lugansk 21 6 6 9 24
11 Astrakhan 20 5 5 10 20
12 Izberbash 21 6 0 15 18
13 Angust Nazran 20 4 4 12 16
14 FK Chayka 2 21 4 2 15 14
15 Dynamo Makhachkala II 21 3 5 13 14
16 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rostov II 21 45 16 +29 46
2 Shahter Taganrog 21 42 20 +22 46
3 Sevastopol 21 38 17 +21 50
4 Pobeda 20 38 27 +11 33
5 Kyzyltash 21 36 30 +6 31
6 Rubin Yalta 20 29 19 +10 34
7 Nart Cherkessk 20 27 19 +8 30
8 Spartak Nalchik 20 27 20 +7 28
9 Lugansk 21 24 30 -6 24
10 Druzhba 20 23 25 -2 27
11 Astrakhan 20 22 32 -10 20
12 Dynamo Makhachkala II 21 19 39 -20 14
13 Izberbash 21 19 57 -38 18
14 FK Chayka 2 21 17 43 -26 14
15 Angust Nazran 20 9 21 -12 16
16 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
Second League - Group 1 Russia. Second League - Group 1 Predictions