Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League - Group 1 / Angust Nazran vs Kyzyltash

Prediction Audit: Angust Nazran vs Kyzyltash Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Angust Nazran Angust Nazran
Jul 25, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 49%
Kyzyltash Kyzyltash

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Kyzyltash at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kyzyltash Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kyzyltash higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kyzyltash -20.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Angust Nazran 34.2% 20.2% +14.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.2% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Kyzyltash 36.1% 56.6% -20.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kyzyltash's win probability at 56.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 20.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Kyzyltash; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kyzyltash by 20.5 percentage points (56.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 21:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Angust Nazran 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Kyzyltash 36.1%
    • xG · Angust Nazran 1.28 — Kyzyltash 1.32
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Angust Nazran 4.45 · Draw 3.88 · Kyzyltash 1.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Angust Nazran 20.2% · Draw 23.2% · Kyzyltash 56.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Angust Nazran 4.45 · Draw 3.88 · Kyzyltash 1.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Angust Nazran 20.2% · Draw 23.2% · Kyzyltash 56.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455800

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Angust Nazran 0–0 Kyzyltash
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Russian Second League Group 1
  • Fixture: Angust Nazran vs Kyzyltash
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Angust Nazran 1.28 — Kyzyltash 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 1 Second League - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sevastopol 21 16 2 3 50
2 Shahter Taganrog 21 14 4 3 46
3 Rostov II 21 14 4 3 46
4 Rubin Yalta 20 9 7 4 34
5 Pobeda 20 10 3 7 33
6 Kyzyltash 21 9 4 8 31
7 Nart Cherkessk 20 9 3 8 30
8 Spartak Nalchik 20 7 7 6 28
9 Druzhba 20 7 6 7 27
10 Lugansk 21 6 6 9 24
11 Astrakhan 20 5 5 10 20
12 Izberbash 21 6 0 15 18
13 Angust Nazran 20 4 4 12 16
14 FK Chayka 2 21 4 2 15 14
15 Dynamo Makhachkala II 21 3 5 13 14
16 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rostov II 21 45 16 +29 46
2 Shahter Taganrog 21 42 20 +22 46
3 Sevastopol 21 38 17 +21 50
4 Pobeda 20 38 27 +11 33
5 Kyzyltash 21 36 30 +6 31
6 Rubin Yalta 20 29 19 +10 34
7 Nart Cherkessk 20 27 19 +8 30
8 Spartak Nalchik 20 27 20 +7 28
9 Lugansk 21 24 30 -6 24
10 Druzhba 20 23 25 -2 27
11 Astrakhan 20 22 32 -10 20
12 Dynamo Makhachkala II 21 19 39 -20 14
13 Izberbash 21 19 57 -38 18
14 FK Chayka 2 21 17 43 -26 14
15 Angust Nazran 20 9 21 -12 16
16 PSK Dinskaya 0 0 0 0 0
Second League - Group 1 Russia. Second League - Group 1 Predictions