The model missed the final outcome (Bryne W win 2–6).
The model had projected Klepp W at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Klepp W Bryne W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-6 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klepp W | 36.6% | 27.3% | +9.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.1% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Bryne W | 33.8% | 52.6% | -18.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Bryne W's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Bryne W win 2–6.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Bryne W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Klepp W by 18.9 percentage points (55.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Klepp W 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Bryne W 33.8%
- xG · Klepp W 1.33 — Bryne W 1.27
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Klepp W 3.32 · Draw 4.50 · Bryne W 1.72
- Implied 1X2 · Klepp W 27.3% · Draw 20.1% · Bryne W 52.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Klepp W 3.32 · Draw 4.50 · Bryne W 1.72
- Implied 1X2 · Klepp W 27.3% · Draw 20.1% · Bryne W 52.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bryne W win · 2–6
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Division Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Start W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Åsane W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | TIL 2020 W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Arna-Bjørnar W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Bryne W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Odd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kolbotn W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Grei | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Klepp W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Frigg Oslo FK W | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Fyllingsdalen W | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking FK | 8 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 19 |
| 2 | TIL 2020 W | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 17 |
| 3 | Åsane W | 8 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Start W | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Grei | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | Arna-Bjørnar W | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Kolbotn W | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Klepp W | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 6 |
| 9 | Odd | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Fyllingsdalen W | 8 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 3 |
| 11 | Bryne W | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Frigg Oslo FK W | 8 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 3 |
