The model missed the final outcome (Viking FK win 0–1).
The model had projected Frigg Oslo FK W at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Frigg Oslo FK W Viking FK ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frigg Oslo FK W | 39.5% | 6.7% | +32.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 10.3% | +19.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Viking FK | 31.0% | 83.0% | -52.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Viking FK's win probability at 83.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 52.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Viking FK win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Frigg Oslo FK W; match finished Viking FK
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Frigg Oslo FK W by 52.0 percentage points (91.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Frigg Oslo FK W 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Viking FK 31.0%
- xG · Frigg Oslo FK W 1.39 — Viking FK 1.21
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Frigg Oslo FK W 13.57 · Draw 8.90 · Viking FK 1.10
- Implied 1X2 · Frigg Oslo FK W 6.7% · Draw 10.3% · Viking FK 83.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Frigg Oslo FK W 13.57 · Draw 8.90 · Viking FK 1.10
- Implied 1X2 · Frigg Oslo FK W 6.7% · Draw 10.3% · Viking FK 83.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Viking FK win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (52 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Division Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Start W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Åsane W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | TIL 2020 W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Arna-Bjørnar W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Bryne W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Odd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kolbotn W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Grei | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Klepp W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Frigg Oslo FK W | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Fyllingsdalen W | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking FK | 8 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 19 |
| 2 | TIL 2020 W | 8 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 17 |
| 3 | Åsane W | 8 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Start W | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Grei | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | Arna-Bjørnar W | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 | Kolbotn W | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Klepp W | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 6 |
| 9 | Odd | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Fyllingsdalen W | 8 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 3 |
| 11 | Bryne W | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Frigg Oslo FK W | 8 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 3 |
