Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division Women / Klepp W vs Viking FK

Prediction Audit: Klepp W vs Viking FK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Klepp W Klepp W
Sep 13, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.39
5 1.21
xG Accuracy: 24%
Viking FK Viking FK

The model missed the final outcome (Viking FK win 0–5).

The model had projected Klepp W at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Klepp W Viking FK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Viking FK win 0–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Klepp W 1.39 — Viking FK 1.21
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Viking FK win · 0–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7428368

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Viking FK win · Klepp W 0–5 Viking FK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division Women
  • Fixture: Klepp W vs Viking FK
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Klepp W 1.39 — Viking FK 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division Women 1. Division Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Start W 8 6 2 0 20
2 Viking FK 8 6 1 1 19
3 Åsane W 8 5 3 0 18
4 TIL 2020 W 8 5 2 1 17
5 Arna-Bjørnar W 8 4 2 2 14
6 Bryne W 8 3 2 3 11
7 Odd 8 2 3 3 9
8 Kolbotn W 8 2 2 4 8
9 Grei 8 2 1 5 7
10 Klepp W 8 2 0 6 6
11 Frigg Oslo FK W 8 1 0 7 3
12 Fyllingsdalen W 8 1 0 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking FK 8 25 7 +18 19
2 TIL 2020 W 8 19 5 +14 17
3 Åsane W 8 17 6 +11 18
4 Start W 8 17 8 +9 20
5 Grei 8 16 18 -2 7
6 Arna-Bjørnar W 8 13 9 +4 14
7 Kolbotn W 8 11 12 -1 8
8 Klepp W 8 11 26 -15 6
9 Odd 8 9 10 -1 9
10 Fyllingsdalen W 8 9 27 -18 3
11 Bryne W 8 7 9 -2 11
12 Frigg Oslo FK W 8 4 21 -17 3
1. Division Women Norway. 1. Division Women Predictions