Predictions / Football / Norway. 1. Division Women / Odd vs Kolbotn W

Prediction Audit: Odd vs Kolbotn W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Odd Odd
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 78%
Kolbotn W Kolbotn W

AI correctly predicted the Kolbotn W win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kolbotn W Kolbotn W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Kolbotn W win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Odd 1.24 — Kolbotn W 1.36
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Kolbotn W win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10087928

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kolbotn W win · Odd 1–2 Kolbotn W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division Women
  • Fixture: Odd vs Kolbotn W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Odd 1.24 — Kolbotn W 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division Women 1. Division Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Start W 8 6 2 0 20
2 Viking FK 8 6 1 1 19
3 Åsane W 8 5 3 0 18
4 TIL 2020 W 8 5 2 1 17
5 Arna-Bjørnar W 8 4 2 2 14
6 Bryne W 8 3 2 3 11
7 Odd 8 2 3 3 9
8 Kolbotn W 8 2 2 4 8
9 Grei 8 2 1 5 7
10 Klepp W 8 2 0 6 6
11 Frigg Oslo FK W 8 1 0 7 3
12 Fyllingsdalen W 8 1 0 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Viking FK 8 25 7 +18 19
2 TIL 2020 W 8 19 5 +14 17
3 Åsane W 8 17 6 +11 18
4 Start W 8 17 8 +9 20
5 Grei 8 16 18 -2 7
6 Arna-Bjørnar W 8 13 9 +4 14
7 Kolbotn W 8 11 12 -1 8
8 Klepp W 8 11 26 -15 6
9 Odd 8 9 10 -1 9
10 Fyllingsdalen W 8 9 27 -18 3
11 Bryne W 8 7 9 -2 11
12 Frigg Oslo FK W 8 4 21 -17 3
1. Division Women Norway. 1. Division Women Predictions