The model missed the final outcome (Inglewood United win 0–4).
The model had projected Curtin University at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Curtin University Inglewood United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtin University | 35.6% | 23.1% | +12.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Inglewood United | 34.7% | 51.3% | -16.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Inglewood United's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Inglewood United win 0–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Inglewood United than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Curtin University by 16.6 percentage points (52.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Curtin University 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Inglewood United 34.7%
- xG · Curtin University 1.31 — Inglewood United 1.29
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 06:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Curtin University 3.84 · Draw 3.47 · Inglewood United 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Curtin University 23.1% · Draw 25.6% · Inglewood United 51.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Curtin University 3.84 · Draw 3.47 · Inglewood United 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Curtin University 23.1% · Draw 25.6% · Inglewood United 51.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inglewood United win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Western Australia State League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floreat Athena | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 2 | UWA Nedlands | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 3 | Mandurah City | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 4 | Joondalup City | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 5 | Quinns FC | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Inglewood United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Kingsley Westside | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 8 | Gwelup Croatia | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 9 | Cockburn City | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Murdoch Melville | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 11 | Subiaco | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Curtin University | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floreat Athena | 21 | 56 | 24 | +32 | 49 |
| 2 | Mandurah City | 22 | 47 | 39 | +8 | 36 |
| 3 | UWA Nedlands | 22 | 45 | 28 | +17 | 44 |
| 4 | Kingsley Westside | 22 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 32 |
| 5 | Murdoch Melville | 22 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 22 |
| 6 | Joondalup City | 22 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | Subiaco | 22 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 20 |
| 8 | Gwelup Croatia | 22 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | Quinns FC | 21 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Cockburn City | 22 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 23 |
| 11 | Inglewood United | 22 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 33 |
| 12 | Curtin University | 22 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 13 |
