Predictions / Football / Australia. Western Australia State League 1 / UWA Nedlands vs Subiaco

Prediction Audit: UWA Nedlands vs Subiaco Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

UWA Nedlands UWA Nedlands
Aug 15, 2026 - 07:00
0 1.45
2 1.15
xG Accuracy: 53%
Subiaco Subiaco

The model missed the final outcome (Subiaco win 0–2).

The model had projected UWA Nedlands at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 UWA Nedlands Subiaco ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices UWA Nedlands higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: UWA Nedlands -27.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
UWA Nedlands 42.4% 69.6% -27.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 17.1% +12.2 pp Model Edge
Subiaco 28.4% 13.4% +15.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates UWA Nedlands's win probability at 69.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Subiaco win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned UWA Nedlands; match finished Subiaco

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on UWA Nedlands by 27.2 percentage points (69.6% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · UWA Nedlands 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Subiaco 28.4%
    • xG · UWA Nedlands 1.45 — Subiaco 1.15
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 06:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · UWA Nedlands 1.29 · Draw 5.26 · Subiaco 6.71
    • Implied 1X2 · UWA Nedlands 69.6% · Draw 17.1% · Subiaco 13.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · UWA Nedlands 1.29 · Draw 5.26 · Subiaco 6.71
    • Implied 1X2 · UWA Nedlands 69.6% · Draw 17.1% · Subiaco 13.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Subiaco win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3335718

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Subiaco win · UWA Nedlands 0–2 Subiaco
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Western Australia State League 1
  • Fixture: UWA Nedlands vs Subiaco
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): UWA Nedlands 1.45 — Subiaco 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Western Australia State League 1 Western Australia State League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Floreat Athena 21 15 4 2 49
2 UWA Nedlands 22 14 2 6 44
3 Mandurah City 22 11 3 8 36
4 Joondalup City 22 11 3 8 36
5 Quinns FC 21 11 3 7 36
6 Inglewood United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Kingsley Westside 22 10 2 10 32
8 Gwelup Croatia 22 6 7 9 25
9 Cockburn City 22 6 5 11 23
10 Murdoch Melville 22 5 7 10 22
11 Subiaco 22 6 2 14 20
12 Curtin University 22 3 4 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Floreat Athena 21 56 24 +32 49
2 Mandurah City 22 47 39 +8 36
3 UWA Nedlands 22 45 28 +17 44
4 Kingsley Westside 22 38 33 +5 32
5 Murdoch Melville 22 38 46 -8 22
6 Joondalup City 22 36 32 +4 36
7 Subiaco 22 36 46 -10 20
8 Gwelup Croatia 22 36 47 -11 25
9 Quinns FC 21 34 36 -2 36
10 Cockburn City 22 34 49 -15 23
11 Inglewood United 22 26 24 +2 33
12 Curtin University 22 19 41 -22 13