The model missed the final outcome (Floreat Athena win 2–1).
The model had projected Mandurah City at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Mandurah City Floreat Athena ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floreat Athena | 34.7% | 57.3% | -22.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.4% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Mandurah City | 35.6% | 21.4% | +14.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Floreat Athena's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 22.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Floreat Athena win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Mandurah City; match finished Floreat Athena
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mandurah City by 22.6 percentage points (58.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Floreat Athena 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Mandurah City 35.6%
- xG · Floreat Athena 1.29 — Mandurah City 1.31
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 06:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Floreat Athena 1.56 · Draw 4.12 · Mandurah City 4.11
- Implied 1X2 · Floreat Athena 56.9% · Draw 21.5% · Mandurah City 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Floreat Athena 1.57 · Draw 4.21 · Mandurah City 4.21
- Implied 1X2 · Floreat Athena 57.3% · Draw 21.4% · Mandurah City 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Floreat Athena win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Western Australia State League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floreat Athena | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 2 | UWA Nedlands | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 3 | Mandurah City | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 4 | Joondalup City | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 5 | Quinns FC | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Inglewood United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Kingsley Westside | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 8 | Gwelup Croatia | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 9 | Cockburn City | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Murdoch Melville | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 11 | Subiaco | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Curtin University | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floreat Athena | 21 | 56 | 24 | +32 | 49 |
| 2 | Mandurah City | 22 | 47 | 39 | +8 | 36 |
| 3 | UWA Nedlands | 22 | 45 | 28 | +17 | 44 |
| 4 | Kingsley Westside | 22 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 32 |
| 5 | Murdoch Melville | 22 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 22 |
| 6 | Joondalup City | 22 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | Subiaco | 22 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 20 |
| 8 | Gwelup Croatia | 22 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | Quinns FC | 21 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Cockburn City | 22 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 23 |
| 11 | Inglewood United | 22 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 33 |
| 12 | Curtin University | 22 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 13 |
