Predictions / Football / Belarus. 1. Division / Slonim vs Smorgon

Prediction Audit: Slonim vs Smorgon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Slonim Slonim
Aug 16, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.19
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 61%
Smorgon Smorgon

AI correctly predicted the Smorgon win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Smorgon Smorgon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Slonim higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Slonim -27.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Slonim 30.1% 57.7% -27.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 21.2% +8.3 pp Model Higher
Smorgon 40.4% 21.2% +19.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Slonim's win probability at 57.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 27.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Smorgon win 0–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Smorgon higher (67.9% vs model 40.4%, 27.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Smorgon win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Slonim 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Smorgon 40.5%
    • xG · Slonim 1.19 — Smorgon 1.41
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Slonim 1.56 · Draw 4.25 · Smorgon 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Slonim 57.7% · Draw 21.2% · Smorgon 21.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Slonim 1.56 · Draw 4.25 · Smorgon 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Slonim 57.7% · Draw 21.2% · Smorgon 21.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Smorgon win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3608836

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Smorgon win · Slonim 0–2 Smorgon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Division
  • Fixture: Slonim vs Smorgon
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Slonim 1.19 — Smorgon 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Division 1. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Niva 26 17 3 6 54
2 FC Slutsk 26 16 6 4 54
3 Lida 26 16 3 7 51
4 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 26 15 5 6 50
5 Slonim 26 14 4 8 46
6 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 25 14 3 8 45
7 Shakhter Soligorsk 26 11 6 9 39
8 Bumprom 25 11 4 10 37
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 10 5 10 35
10 Ostrovets FC 26 8 10 8 34
11 Volna 26 10 4 12 34
12 Smorgon 26 8 6 12 30
13 Minsk II 26 9 3 14 30
14 Uni Minsk 26 6 8 12 26
15 Orsha 26 7 5 14 26
16 Gomel II 26 5 6 15 21
17 BATE II 26 5 6 15 21
18 Osipovichy 25 5 3 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Niva 26 67 31 +36 54
2 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 26 53 31 +22 50
3 FC Slutsk 26 52 27 +25 54
4 Shakhter Soligorsk 26 51 43 +8 39
5 Lida 26 49 43 +6 51
6 Slonim 26 48 31 +17 46
7 Bumprom 25 47 37 +10 37
8 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 25 44 36 +8 45
9 Dinamo Minsk II 25 42 37 +5 35
10 Volna 26 40 48 -8 34
11 Ostrovets FC 26 36 38 -2 34
12 Minsk II 26 36 48 -12 30
13 Gomel II 26 36 52 -16 21
14 BATE II 26 35 60 -25 21
15 Smorgon 26 31 36 -5 30
16 Orsha 26 28 51 -23 26
17 Osipovichy 25 26 62 -36 18
18 Uni Minsk 26 25 35 -10 26
1. Division Belarus. 1. Division Predictions