The model missed the final outcome (Suwon FMC win 4–1).
The model had projected Gumi Sportstoto at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Gumi Sportstoto Suwon FMC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon FMC | 33.3% | 71.2% | -37.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.2% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Gumi Sportstoto | 37.1% | 7.6% | +29.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Suwon FMC's win probability at 71.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 37.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Suwon FMC win 4–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Gumi Sportstoto; match finished Suwon FMC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Gumi Sportstoto by 37.9 percentage points (75.0% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Suwon FMC 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Gumi Sportstoto 37.0%
- xG · Suwon FMC 1.26 — Gumi Sportstoto 1.34
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Suwon FMC 1.28 · Draw 4.31 · Gumi Sportstoto 12.00
- Implied 1X2 · Suwon FMC 71.2% · Draw 21.2% · Gumi Sportstoto 7.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Suwon FMC 1.28 · Draw 4.31 · Gumi Sportstoto 12.00
- Implied 1X2 · Suwon FMC 71.2% · Draw 21.2% · Gumi Sportstoto 7.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Suwon FMC win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (38 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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WK-League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon FMC | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 |
| 2 | Hwacheon KSPO | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 47 |
| 3 | Gyeongju | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34 |
| 4 | Boeun Sangmu | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Gumi Sportstoto | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 6 | Seoul | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 7 | Incheon Red Angels | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 8 | Changnyeong | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon FMC | 24 | 58 | 19 | +39 | 56 |
| 2 | Gyeongju | 24 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 34 |
| 3 | Hwacheon KSPO | 24 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 47 |
| 4 | Boeun Sangmu | 24 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 33 |
| 5 | Gumi Sportstoto | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | Seoul | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 30 |
| 7 | Changnyeong | 24 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 15 |
| 8 | Incheon Red Angels | 24 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
