The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Hwacheon KSPO at 35.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Hwacheon KSPO Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon FMC | 35.1% | 54.2% | -19.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.1% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Hwacheon KSPO | 35.7% | 18.7% | +17.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Suwon FMC's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.1%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Suwon FMC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Hwacheon KSPO; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hwacheon KSPO by 19.1 percentage points (54.9% vs model 35.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 13:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Suwon FMC 35.1% · Draw 29.2% · Hwacheon KSPO 35.7%
- xG · Suwon FMC 1.13 — Hwacheon KSPO 1.47
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Suwon FMC 1.69 · Draw 3.38 · Hwacheon KSPO 4.91
- Implied 1X2 · Suwon FMC 54.2% · Draw 27.1% · Hwacheon KSPO 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Suwon FMC 1.69 · Draw 3.38 · Hwacheon KSPO 4.91
- Implied 1X2 · Suwon FMC 54.2% · Draw 27.1% · Hwacheon KSPO 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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WK-League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon FMC | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 |
| 2 | Hwacheon KSPO | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 47 |
| 3 | Gyeongju | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34 |
| 4 | Boeun Sangmu | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Gumi Sportstoto | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 6 | Seoul | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 7 | Incheon Red Angels | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 8 | Changnyeong | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon FMC | 24 | 58 | 19 | +39 | 56 |
| 2 | Gyeongju | 24 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 34 |
| 3 | Hwacheon KSPO | 24 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 47 |
| 4 | Boeun Sangmu | 24 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 33 |
| 5 | Gumi Sportstoto | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | Seoul | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 30 |
| 7 | Changnyeong | 24 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 15 |
| 8 | Incheon Red Angels | 24 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
